Middle Finger Research Institute: The "little spring" market in core cities in March has emerged, and the price decline in second-hand houses in 100 cities has narrowed for three consecutive months.

The Research Institute of Zhongzhi said in a document that in March 2026, the core cities showed signs of a "small spring" market, coupled with stabilizing homeowner expectations. The average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities was 12,792 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 0.34% from the previous month and a narrowing of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. This marks the third consecutive month of narrowing. Year-on-year, there was an 8.55% decrease. In the core cities, the average listing price of second-hand homes in Shanghai increased month-on-month, ending the previous trend of 33 months of decline. In terms of new homes, in March, there was an increase in the number of new properties being offered by real estate developers. High-end improvement properties entered the market in cities such as Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, driving a structural increase in the average price of new homes in 100 cities. The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities was 17,115 yuan per square meter, an increase of 0.05% month-on-month and a 2.24% increase year-on-year. Regarding rental residential properties, the post-Spring Festival return-to-work rush led to a concentrated release of rental demand, with the average rent in 50 cities standing at 34.00 yuan per square meter per month, a 0.09% increase month-on-month and a 3.65% decrease year-on-year. Overall, in the first quarter of 2026, the real estate market continued to exhibit obvious differentiation characteristics. After the Spring Festival, there was a certain level of recovery in the core cities property market, with second-hand properties continuing to perform better than new homes. The Beijing and Shanghai markets were the first to show signs of warming up, while premium land parcels in core cities could still fetch high premiums, indicating that the overall market is still at the bottoming stage. The sustainability of the recovery in core cities in April will be put to the test. If the momentum can continue, it will help improve market expectations and lay a better foundation for stable market operation throughout the year. Graph: Changes in average prices of new residential properties in 100 cities and month-on-month changes Graph: Changes in average prices of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities and month-on-month changes Graph: Average rent for residential properties in 50 cities and month-on-month changes In terms of second-hand residential properties, the month-on-month price declines in various tier cities have narrowed. In March, the average prices of second-hand homes in first-tier, second-tier, and third-fourth-tier cities decreased by 0.16%, 0.42%, and 0.34% respectively. The month-on-month decline narrowed by 0.26, 0.15, and 0.20 percentage points respectively from the previous month, with year-on-year decreases of 7.72%, 9.17%, and 8.27% respectively. In terms of the number of cities with price increases or decreases, 7 cities saw price hikes, 91 cities saw price declines, and 2 cities remained unchanged. In the core cities, Shanghai and Hefei saw month-on-month increases in the average listing prices of second-hand homes. In March, the average price of second-hand homes in Shanghai increased by 0.08% month-on-month, marking the first increase since June 2023. Since the implementation of the "Seven Regulations" in Shanghai a month ago, Shanghai has become the most active city in this year's "small spring" market. In March, the transaction volume of second-hand commercial housing in Shanghai exceeded 30,000 sets, reaching a five-year high. Hefei saw a month-on-month increase of 0.03% in the average listing price of second-hand homes, marking the first increase since May 2023. In addition, Beijing saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.31% in the average price of second-hand homes, with a narrowing of 0.35 percentage points. The transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in Beijing had exceeded 18,000 sets by the end of the month, indicating a warming market. The "small spring" market for second-hand homes in core cities in March was evident. In terms of new residential properties, in March, first-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase of 0.24% and a year-on-year increase of 6.19% in the average price of new residential properties. Hangzhou and Shanghai saw month-on-month increases of 0.34% and 0.33% respectively, with the price increases mainly driven by structurally high-priced projects entering the market. Second-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase of 0.02% and a year-on-year increase of 1.69%. Representing third and fourth-tier cities saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.20% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.45%. In terms of the number of cities with price increases or decreases, 23 cities saw price hikes, 72 cities saw price declines, and 5 cities remained unchanged.