Overnight US stocks | The US-Iran release signal to end the conflict Three major indices saw the biggest single-day increase since May 12 of last year, but both the first quarter and this month ended with declines.

On Tuesday, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all saw their largest single-day gains since May 12 of last year. Reports have indicated that US President Trump has told aides that he is willing to end military actions against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. On the Iranian side, President Peze-Shiyang has stated that Iran has no intention of starting a war but is willing to end it as long as they are no longer under attack. In March, the S&P 500 fell 5.1%, the Nasdaq fell 4.75%, and the Dow fell 5.38%. The Dow ended a streak of 10 consecutive months of gains, marking its largest monthly drop since September 2022. In the first quarter, the Nasdaq saw the largest decline, dropping over 7%. The S&P 500 fell 4.6%, and the Dow Jones fell around 3.6%. [US Stocks] At the close, the Dow rose by 1125.19 points, up 2.49%, to 46341.33 points; the Nasdaq rose by 795.99 points, up 3.83%, to 21590.63 points; the S&P 500 rose by 184.80 points, up 2.91%, to 6528.52 points. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) rose by over 5%, PDD Holdings Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (PDD.US) rose by 3.8%, Intel Corporation (INTC.US) rose by 7%, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) rose by over 4%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index closed 2.7% higher, NIO Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (NIO.US) rose by 9%, and Baidu Inc Sponsored ADR Class A (BIDU.US) rose by over 4%. [European Stocks] The STOXX 600 index fell by approximately 7.8% in March, the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell by approximately 9.3%, the FTSE 100 index fell by 6.7%, the CAC 40 index fell by 8.9%, and the DAX 30 index fell by 10.3%. [Asian Stock Market] The Nikkei 225 index fell by 1.58%, and the KOSPI index in South Korea fell by 4.26%. [Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin rose by over 2%, reaching $68267.15, while Ethereum rose by over 3.3%, reaching $2102. [Crude Oil] New York Mercantile Exchange light crude oil futures for May delivery fell by $1.50, closing at $101.38 per barrel, a decrease of 1.46%; London Brent crude oil futures for May delivery rose by $5.57, closing at $118.35 per barrel, an increase of 4.94%. [US Dollar Index] The US Dollar Index fell on March 31. The index measuring the US dollar against six major currencies fell by 0.54%, closing at 99.965 in the foreign exchange market. At the close of the New York foreign exchange market, 1 euro was exchanged for $1.1523, higher than the previous trading day's $1.1457; 1 pound sterling was exchanged for $1.3189, higher than the previous trading day's $1.3186. 1 US dollar was exchanged for 158.95 Japanese yen, lower than the previous trading day's 159.58 yen; 1 US dollar was exchanged for 0.8008 Swiss francs, higher than the previous trading day's 0.8000 Swiss francs; 1 US dollar was exchanged for 1.3937 Canadian dollars, higher than the previous trading day's 1.3926 Canadian dollars; 1 US dollar was exchanged for 9.4895 Swedish kronor, lower than the previous trading day's 9.5556 Swedish kronor. [Precious Metals] Spot gold rose by over 3%, closing at $4665.75, while spot silver closed at $75.143. [Macro News] US job openings fell, and hiring slowed significantly in February. US job openings fell in February, and hiring slowed significantly, indicating that labor demand had cooled before additional uncertainty was introduced by the Iran conflict. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that job openings fell from a revised 7.24 million in January to 6.88 million. The simultaneous slowdown in hiring and job openings after a period of near-zero growth over the past year suggests that businesses are becoming more cautious about hiring. Looking ahead, the surge in oil prices caused by the war could raise operating costs for businesses and pose a challenge to further hiring. The decline in job openings was primarily driven by a decrease in accommodation and food services, health care and social assistance, and manufacturing. The hiring rate fell to its lowest level since April 2020, while the layoff rate increased slightly. Despite large companies like Meta and Oracle Corporation moving towards large-scale layoffs to reallocate resources to AI investments, overall layoffs in the economy remain modest. US consumer confidence rises, inflation expectations significantly increase. The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose slightly by 0.8 points to 91.8 in March, higher than February's 91.0. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions, rose by 4.6 points to 123.3. The Expectations Index fell by 1.7 points to 70.9. The pressure of rising costs due to tariff pass-through and surging oil prices has been reflected in inflation expectations and other indicators. "Consumer confidence rose slightly again in March, primarily due to improved views on the current situation offsetting a slight softening of future expectations," said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board. "Three out of five components improved in March, with overall confidence rising modestly for the second consecutive month. However, since 2021, the index has generally been trending downward." Data also showed that amid the oil price shock caused by the Iran conflict, consumers' average and median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose significantly in March to the highest level since August 2025. The net percentage of consumers expecting interest rates to rise over the next 12 months jumped from 34.9% to 42.4%. Fed's Schmid: Do not underestimate the risks of inflation expectations. Fed's Schmid warned on Tuesday not to assume that the rise in energy prices will only have a short-term impact on inflation, as even before the surge in oil prices due to the Iran conflict, the inflation rate was already close to 3%, and the Fed's progress towards its 2% inflation target had stalled. "I think we cannot underestimate the risks of inflation expectations," said Schmid. He also noted that while most measures of medium-to-long-term inflation expectations have remained stable, this does not bring him much comfort. "Our task now is to take appropriate policy actions to validate these expectations." Schmid did not specify what specific policy measures he was referring to, but last year he twice opposed the Fed's decisions to lower interest rates. Last week, the financial markets reflected a growing belief that the rise in oil prices could compel the Fed to raise rates later this year to prevent inflation. However, this week, market sentiment has shifted to the view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. Iranian President: To end the war, the other side must ensure no further aggression. Iranian President Peze-Shiyang stated on March 31 that Iran has the "necessary willingness" to end the war, provided that the other side meets Iran's demands, especially by providing necessary assurances of no more aggression. According to Iran's Mehr News Agency, Peze-Shiyang expressed during a telephone call with the President of the European Council, that the solution to normalize the situation is to stop the aggressive attacks by the US and Israel. He reiterated that Iran has not sought tension or war at any stage and has the "necessary willingness to end this war." Peze-Shiyang pointed out that Iran entered into negotiations with the US with sincerity and a constructive attitude but was unlawfully attacked during the negotiations. This issue proves that the US does not believe in diplomacy, but only seeks to issue commands to achieve its greedy intentions. Iranian Foreign Minister: Not negotiating with the US, but exchanging information. On March 31, Iranian Foreign Minister Araazi stated that the current situation is "not negotiations" but rather an exchange of information through direct channels or "regional friends." Iran is still receiving information from US envoy Witkov, but this does not mean that negotiations have begun; the exchanges are mainly for "warnings or exchanging views." He pointed out that currently, Iran has not engaged in negotiations with any specific party, and the information exchange is coordinated by the Foreign Ministry in collaboration with security agencies and is strictly conducted within the official framework under the supervision of the government and the highest national security council. Araazi emphasized that Iran has not responded to the 15 proposals made by the US, nor has it put forward any proposals or conditions. Although Iran has not made a final decision on negotiation principles, the conditions for ending the war are "very clear": Iran "will not agree to a ceasefire" but instead demands "the complete end of the war in the entire region." EU may reintroduce measures to address the energy crisis of 2022 to deal with the situation in the Iran war. The EU Energy Commissioner stated on Tuesday that the EU is considering reactivating the measures taken in 2022 to address the significant reduction in natural gas supply by Russia to deal with the current chaos in the energy market caused by the Iran war. After an online meeting of energy ministers from EU countries, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said that these plans include proposals to lower grid fees and reduce electricity taxes. "We do not know how long this crisis will last. Because we also do not know the severity of the crisis, we are preparing for various different opportunities and possibilities, which are more similar to the measures we took during that crisis in 2022." [Stock News] Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US) is in exclusive negotiations with Chevron Corporation (CVX.US) and Engine No. 1 to seek a power supply agreement. Microsoft Corporation is in exclusive negotiations with Chevron Corporation and investment fund Engine No. 1 to reach a long-term agreement for a mega-energy hub in West Texas, US, to provide power for a large data center complex. The proposed natural gas power plant is expected to cost around $7 billion and have an initial capacity of 2,500 megawatts (MW), making it one of the largest facilities of its kind in the US. An agreement with Microsoft Corporation would secure long-term power customers for the power plant and help with its construction financing. The project is still subject to tax and environmental permits and reaching agreement on business terms.