Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures rise together, the signal of the US economic recession lights up red. Trump said he would end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Pre-market Market Trends 1. In pre-market trading on March 31 (Tuesday), futures for the three major US stock indexes all rose. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were up 1.01%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.98%, and Nasdaq futures were up 0.94%. 2. At the time of writing, the German DAX index was up 1.15%, the UK FTSE 100 index was up 0.93%, the French CAC40 index was up 0.59%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was up 0.66%. 3. At the time of writing, WTI crude oil was up 0.12% at $103.00 per barrel. Brent crude oil was down 0.16% at $107.22 per barrel. Market News Trump says he is willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. According to reports, Trump told his staff that he is willing to end military actions against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed. The Trump administration officials cited by reports say that Trump and his staff have recently assessed that if action is taken to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict could last longer than the anticipated timeframe of 4 to 6 weeks. Therefore, Trump has decided that the US should first achieve its "primary goal, which is to weaken Iran's naval forces and missile arsenal", and gradually de-escalate current hostilities by pressuring Iran diplomatically to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. US government officials say that if these efforts fail, the US will push its allies in Europe and the Gulf region to lead efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. They say that Trump could also choose to use military means, but "this is not his immediate priority." Additionally, there are reports that some Gulf countries, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, hope that the US will continue the war with Iran. The UAE is "pushing hard" for US ground forces to be deployed, and Kuwait and Bahrain also support this position. Walmart Inc. issues warning signals! US economy slowdown fears surge to 2008 crisis levels. Strategist Jim Paulsen's tracking of Walmart Inc. stock-related indicators suggests that the US economy is about to experience a sharp decline. The Walmart Inc. Recession Signal (WRS) measures the performance of this retail giant's stock (up 10.9% year-to-date) against the S&P Global, Inc. Luxury Goods Index (SPGLGUN, down 14.8% year-to-date). Paulsen believes that the sharp rise in the WRS index may indicate an impending economic recession or slowdown, similar to the situations before the past four US economic recessions. The WRS is currently close to its record high, which occurred during the 2008-09 financial crisis. He stated: "As retail purchase trends shift towards discount stores, the WRS increasingly shows caution towards the US economy, indicating that pressure on low to middle-income consumers may be increasing." "I estimate that the economy will avoid a recession this year, but I increasingly believe that the US economy is undergoing a severe slowdown that will eventually require additional easing measures and interest rate cuts to address this trend." "Fear of growth" outweighs "inflation anxiety," renewed expectations for Fed rate cuts. As market focus shifts to concerns that the Iran conflict could exacerbate an economic slowdown, traders are abandoning bets on Fed rate hikes. Early last week, the futures market had fully priced in one rate hike before the end of the year, and even until last Friday, the market still believed that a rate hike was highly likely. However, by Monday, market sentiment had quickly reversed, with traders at one point believing that there was a 20% probability of a rate cut before the December meeting. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in a speech at Harvard University that the central bank is almost powerless against supply-side shocks (such as the surge in oil prices caused by the US-Iran conflict). This statement has eased concerns in the market about the Fed being forced to tighten monetary policy to curb accelerating inflation, prompting traders to consider the possibility of a rate cut this year, although the probability is still low. Counter-trend move by Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. supports gold: Fed rate cuts and central bank buying will help gold prices surge to $5400. Despite recent sell-offs in gold prices, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. maintains its bullish view, predicting that gold prices will resume their rise by the end of 2026. Analysts Rina Thomas and Dan Struven pointed out in a report that the medium-term outlook for gold remains solid, as central banks continue to buy gold and with two more expected rate cuts in the US this year, gold prices could reach $5400 per ounce. They noted that in the short term, there is still "tactical downside risk" for gold prices, and if energy supply shocks worsen, gold prices could fall to $3800 per ounce. Nevertheless, if the Iran conflict prompts countries to accelerate diversifying away from "traditional Western assets," there is still significant upside potential for gold prices. FGE issues warning: if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices could rise to $200! According to energy market consultancy FGE NexantECA, if the situation where the Strait of Hormuz is nearly closed due to the Iran conflict continues for six to eight weeks, oil prices could surge to $150 or $200 per barrel. Fereidun Fesharaki, the company's honorary chairman, said in an interview on Tuesday: "One million barrels of oil cannot move per week, four million barrels of oil cannot move per month. Therefore, these losses will have astronomically high impacts on the market for a period of time." Fesharaki believes that verbal interventions, including Trump's statements about a possible end to the conflict, have had little effect, and he pointed out that the reality of supply disruptions will eventually push prices higher. Gas prices soar to $4 per gallon! US gasoline prices return to over $4 for the first time in more than three years. Due to the surge in fuel costs caused by the Middle East conflict, US gasoline prices have risen to over $4 per gallon, breaking this level for the first time since August 2022. Data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) shows that the nationwide average for regular unleaded gasoline prices rose to over $4.018 per gallon on Monday. Since the military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran erupted on February 28, US gasoline prices have soared by over $1before the US attacked Iran, gasoline prices were at $2.98 per gallon, marking a 35% increase. This increase is comparable to some of the most drastic increases in the past 20 years, and the speed of this increase is even faster than that during the initial surge in oil prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. Individual Stock News Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US) plans to invest $1 billion in Thailand over the next two years for cloud computing and AI infrastructure. On March 31, the Thai government announced in a statement that Microsoft Corporation plans to invest $1 billion in Thailand over the next two years for cloud computing services and artificial intelligence infrastructure construction. The investment will also include efforts to enhance digital skills of the Thai workforce. Prior to this investment announcement, multiple data center investments were already in place to support the development of artificial intelligence. As the second largest economy in Southeast Asia, Thailand is currently accelerating data center, electronics industry, and power-related projects. Nebius (NBIS.US) expands its computing power footprint in Europe! "Moves" to Finland to build a super data center. Cloud computing services provider Nebius announced on Tuesday that as the demand for artificial intelligence (AI) computing power continues to grow, the company is rapidly expanding its business in Europe and will be constructing a new AI data center in Finland. The data center, located in Lappeenranta, Finland, will have a capacity of up to 310 megawatts, with a project valuation estimated to exceed $10 billion. The company stated that once operational, this data center will become one of the largest in Europe and is expected to begin providing initial services to customers starting in 2027. At the time of writing, Nebius was up over 3% in pre-market trading. Unilever PLC Sponsored ADR (UL.US) is close to completing the sale of its food business to McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC.US), which could be their largest transaction ever. Unilever PLC Sponsored ADR announced that negotiations to sell most of its food business to spice manufacturer McCormick & Company, Incorporated are in the final stages, with the final deal expected to be formally announced later on Tuesday. Unilever PLC Sponsored ADR stated in a release on Tuesday that it plans to divest most of its food business for $15.7 billion in cash plus McCormick & Company, Incorporated stock, excluding operations in places like India. After the transaction is completed, Unilever PLC Sponsored ADR and its shareholders will hold 65% of the merged company. For both companies, this will be their largest respective transactions in their history. This deal will transform Unilever PLC Sponsored ADR into a global leader in the beauty, personal care, and home care sectors, while also propelling McCormick & Company, Incorporated to become a major player in the global spice, seasoning, and sauce industry. At the time of writing, McCormick & Company, Incorporated was up over 3% in pre-market trading. Ticket prices rise to $750,000! Virgin Galactic (SPCE.US) sees Q4 net losses narrow by 17%, Delta spacecraft to debut next month as a "lifeline". Virgin Galactic released its fiscal fourth quarter 2025 performance report. The report shows that due to the commercial spaceflight vacuum caused by the retirement of its first-generation spacecraft VSS Unity, the company's fourth-quarter revenue was only $312,000, lower than the analyst average forecast of $360,000; but profitability performance exceeded market expectations, with a significant narrowing of the net loss in the fourth quarter to $63 million, an improvement of about 17% compared to the net loss of $76 million in the same period of 2024; diluted losses per share for the quarter were $0.98, better than Wall Street's previous expectations of losses per share ranging from $1.12 to $1.51. According to the company's latest strategic roadmap, Virgin Galactic plans to conduct its first suborbital test flight in the third quarter of 2026 and aims to return to commercial operations in the fourth quarter of the same year. To further optimize the future unit economics, the company also announced an increase in the price of a single ticket to $750,000, about $10,000 higher than previous prices, aiming to reach its goal of positive cash flow by 2027 using the Delta spacecraft's high turnover and profit margin. CEO Michael Colglazier confirmed that production of the first Delta-class spacecraft is nearing completion and plans to start key ground tests in April 2026. At the time of writing, Virgin Galactic was up over 9% in pre-market trading. Important Economic Data and Events Preview 10:00 PM Beijing time: US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index 10:00 PM Beijing time: US February JOLTS Job Openings 1:10 AM Beijing time the next day: 2028 FOMC Voting Member and Kansas Federal Reserve President Shmidt speech on monetary policy and economic outlook 3:00 AM Beijing time the next day: Fed Governor Barr speech on stablecoins 3:10 AM Beijing time the next day: Fed Governor Bauman speech at CBA Live 2026 event Earnings Preview Wednesday morning: NIKE, Inc. Class B (NKE.US)