"Mr. Brexit" once again accurately predicted: anticipating the inflation impact caused by the Iran war, swiftly reversed positions leading the market.

The macro strategist at Mizuho Bank, Jordan Rochester, earned the nickname "Mr. Brexit" for his keen market insights on the UK's exit from the European Union. Nearly a decade later, with the outbreak of conflicts in the Middle East, his quick reactions led to the implementation of a series of new profitable trading strategies. Well before the US launched attacks on Iran four weekends ago, Rochester foresaw the significant impact it would have on the market. By the first Monday opening after the attacks began, he adjusted his strategy - shifting from recommending long positions in UK interest rate futures to shorting them, while also advising clients to sell the euro against the dollar and buy inflation-protected assets in Europe as oil prices began to soar. During an interview, Rochester talked about his 180-degree turn, stating, "We had to abandon all these trades. I told my team at the time, 'Sell it all, get out, do the opposite.'" Rochester, along with his colleagues Evelyne Gomez-Liechti and Masayuki Nakajima, quickly concluded that the threat to energy supply and the resulting oil shock would be severe enough to compel major central banks to raise interest rates to curb inflation - a view not reflected in the market at the time. His early predictions proved to be extremely forward-thinking, bringing lucrative returns to those who took his advice: a month after the outbreak of war, traders' expectations shifted from expecting two rate cuts in the UK this year to almost three rate hikes, leading to one of the largest bond sell-offs in recent years. Rochester's rapid reversal stood out as investors were caught off guard, having previously bet on rate cuts, resulting in losses for several prominent hedge funds including Brevan Howard. For investors who followed Mizuho's strategist's advice, UK government bonds and other sovereign debt began to recover some lost ground, and their trades started to pay off. While Rochester was not the only investor to foresee that disruptions in oil supply would complicate inflation and rate expectations (especially in Europe and the UK), his early warning helped clients minimize losses and take advantage of escalating market volatility over time. "He went short on short-term rates in early March - that was a very good move," said James Athey, portfolio manager at Marlborough Investment Management. "He's an independent thinker." Some major bond investors are more concerned about the growth risks posed by the conflict, which could ultimately lead to policy rates and bond yields falling. Currently, Rochester and his team remain bearish. Last Friday, they even doubled down on their view and advised shorting Japanese rates. Rochester, 35, joined Nomura International in 2013 as a currency analyst. Before that, he interned at the bank while studying economics at the University of Bath. During the chaos of Brexit, Rochester was hailed by colleagues and clients as "Mr. Brexit" for his precise analysis of how each twist in the Brexit process would affect the markets. He authored hundreds of research reports and accurately predicted the decline of the pound. In 2024, Rochester joined Mizuho Bank as head of European, Middle Eastern, and African macro strategy. However, Rochester has also made some mistakes. Towards the end of last year, his and his team's bullish forecasts on UK 10-year gilts proved premature. Their strategy betting on lower European rates also fell apart as the European Central Bank ended its rate-cutting cycle. Although Rochester's views are not always correct, Linda Raggi, head of macro and multi-sector fixed income at Pictet Asset Management, believes his research is insightful. She regularly speaks with Rochester and his team to discuss market dynamics, and she is impressed by his enthusiasm for the macro market. "He's not afraid to go against the crowd," Raggi said. During his early days at Nomura Securities, he worked closely with Alastair Newton, who was then the bank's geopolitical analyst. Newton taught him how oil markets and geopolitics influence currency trends. One lesson that left a deep impression on him was that closing the Strait of Hormuz would be a profoundly impactful extreme event. "Now, things have happened," Rochester said. "That made me feel the market was completely wrong, it needs to wake up." Rochester believes that for the bond market to continue to improve, several conditions need to be met: Iran ceasing attacks, Trump announcing an end to military action, allied forces controlling the Strait of Hormuz, or oil prices rising further, impacting risk assets and driving funds back into the bond market. Rochester is well aware that the rapidly changing situation means his views could be overturned at any moment. Therefore, when a hedge fund client congratulated him for predicting possible rate hikes early, he didn't dwell on it. "This job is like a hamster wheel - the circus keeps spinning," he said. "My call for a ceasefire could be completely wrong, we might see the situation deteriorate rapidly. You can't live in the past. It's all about the next trade."