Morningstar: Maintains fair value forecast of HK$84 for Ping An Insurance (02318), company's performance meets expectations.

Morningstar released a research report stating that it maintains a fair value forecast of HK$84 for Ping An Insurance (02318). Ping An's after-tax operating profit margin is expected to accelerate to 10% by 2025, mainly due to the improvement in property and casualty insurance underwriting profit, benefiting from reduced catastrophe losses and lower losses in asset management business. The company's performance is in line with expectations, highlighting the improvement in cross-border insurance business, reduction in risks in banking and asset management businesses, supporting Morningstar's forecast of high single-digit growth in Ping An's after-tax operating profit margin by 2030. Ping An's bancassurance business only began expanding beyond its subsidiary Ping An Bank in 2023, but the profit margin for its bancassurance business has already reached 29%, similar to AIA's 35%, nearly double that of domestic peers at 15%, and leading the industry in new business value in bancassurance business. Ping An's bancassurance business's new business value (NBV) is expected to grow by 139% in 2025, with a further growth of over 40% in 2026. Agent NBV is growing by 10%, and the number of employees has maintained double-digit growth since 2023. The bank expects the agent's participation products to gain market acceptance, increasing to around 15% by 2026.