Alliance Consulting: It is expected that the overall contract price of NAND Flash in the second quarter will increase by 70%-75% compared to the previous quarter.

According to the latest storage price survey by TrendForce, in the second quarter of 2026, due to DRAM manufacturers actively shifting their capacity towards HBM, server applications, and adopting a "price increase" strategy to narrow the price differences between various products, the overall contract price of general DRAM is estimated to increase by 58%-63% month-on-month. The NAND Flash market continues to be dominated by AI and data center demand, with the effect of prices rising across the entire product line, and overall contract prices are expected to increase by 70%-75% in the second quarter. Analyzing the price changes of various DRAM products, in the PC DRAM sector, despite a decrease in overall demand, manufacturers have simultaneously reduced supply to PC OEMs and module factories, leading to PC OEMs with lower fulfillment rates needing to increase prices when purchasing from manufacturers or module factories, thereby supporting prices. In North America, cloud service providers (CSPs) are gradually clarifying the application scenarios for AI inference, driving an increase in demand for AI servers and general purpose servers, with high-capacity RDIMMs becoming the main procurement target. In terms of supply, manufacturers prioritize the profits of server DRAM over other products, allocating more output bits to server DRAM. Currently, manufacturers are also negotiating long-term agreements (LTA) with major customers as a basis for future expansion, but short-term supply remains tight. In the smartphone sector, brands are facing continuous pressure from storage costs, and it cannot be ruled out that production plans may be adjusted starting from the second quarter of 2026, but it is estimated that the momentum for Mobile DRAM sales in the first half of the year will not show a significant contraction. Overall, as manufacturers set second-quarter prices with key customers and establish price increase benchmarks, combined with manufacturers wanting to narrow the price differences between applications through price increases, the contract price of Mobile DRAM is expected to continue to rise compared to the previous quarter. In the Graphics DRAM sector, rising memory prices have weakened demand momentum for notebooks and gaming consoles, and the capacity available for GDDR remains insufficient, leading to continuous price increases in the second quarter. Customers of Consumer DRAM products mainly focus on low-priced products with small profits. The price increase trend since the beginning of 2025 has caused the storage costs of some products to exceed their selling prices, leading to a slight slowdown in purchasing demand. However, the gradual exit of major manufacturers from the supply of Consumer DRAM products remains the main reason for the industry imbalance, and the supply-demand imbalance shows no signs of easing. The intense competition in AI computing capabilities is driving NAND Flash prices to remain strong. In the second quarter of 2026, although NAND Flash manufacturers have upgraded processes and increased the proportion of QLC, the increase in output is limited. Strong demand from AI servers has prompted PC and smartphone manufacturers to reduce product capacities to suppress demand for NAND Flash. Even if PC demand does not improve, buyers expect the prices of Client SSDs to continue to rise, and they are concerned about the possibility of being completely squeezed out by servers, leading to demand for inventory replenishment. However, suppliers continue to reduce supply of Client SSDs to maximize business profits, and prices in the second quarter continue to rise. With generative AI entering a stage of large-scale application, the demand for high-performance SSDs is significantly increasing, and orders for Enterprise SSDs continue to grow. In terms of supply, shortages are expected in 2026, with new capacity not expected to be widely available until the end of 2027 or 2028. CSPs are willing to accept price increases and sign LTAs to ensure stable supply, further boosting the motivation for manufacturers to raise prices. Even though the smartphone market is in a slump, the demand for high-speed transmission in flagship AI functions remains rigid, and the demand for automotive and industrial control applications is also showing a slight recovery. From the supply side, eMMC/UFS and Enterprise SSDs overlap in some processes, but the unit profit is much lower in the former, leading to a supply gap becoming the main issue across the entire product line, with prices expected to increase significantly in the second quarter. Due to the continuous contraction of the retail market and shrinking demand for flash memory cards and USB drives under price pressure, module factories also face a double dilemma of costs and sales. NAND Flash wafer demand is converging. Considering inventory adjustment and profit, wafers are the lowest priority product for manufacturers to ship, and prices in the second quarter continue to rise.