Hong Kong Trade Development Council: The current and expected export confidence indexes for the first quarter of 2026 are 46.5 and 46.9 respectively. Respondents' attitudes are generally cautious.

On March 31, the Hong Kong Trade Development Council announced the Export Confidence Index for the first quarter of 2026. In the first quarter of 2026, the current situation index was 46.5, and the expected index was 46.9, indicating that respondents were generally cautious. This reflects exporters remaining cautious while awaiting the final ruling by the US Supreme Court on the legality of the Trump administration's tariff hikes, and also businesses generally assessing the situation around the Lunar New Year. The performance of multiple classification indices is positive. Among them, the current situation index of the trade value category (50.9) is still in the expansion zone. Additionally, while costs remain a primary challenge for many exporters, there are signs of stability. Inventory levels are below normal, with both the current situation index and the expected index exceeding 60. The performance of certain industries is better than the overall index, particularly the jewelry and apparel industries showing significant increases. However, confidence among electronic industry exporters has slightly softened. Overview of the Index Overall, the Export Confidence Index of the Hong Kong Trade Development Council weakened in the first quarter of 2026. Both the current situation index (46.5) and the expected index (46.9) fell from the previous quarter's high. The above situation reflects that, faced with global trade and economic uncertainty, especially with the unpredictable US trade policy, Hong Kong exporters are generally cautious. Classification Index By analyzing the various classification indices, we can gain a deeper understanding of the sentiments of exporters. In terms of the Sales and New Orders category index, the current situation index is 44.0 (down 11.7 points), and the expected index is 44.7 (down 10.9 points). Both indices are below 50, reflecting that related activities are affected by external environmental instability and local challenges. In contrast, the situation is more positive in the supply aspect. Various indicators suggest that unit prices are expected to remain strong in the first half of 2026, with the current situation index (50.9) and expected index (49.1) of the trade value category hovering at neutral levels. As for the Inventory category index, both the current situation and expected indices have risen above 60, indicating inventory levels are below normal, once again confirming that Hong Kong exporters are adopting a cautious approach. Progress in the Cost category index is relatively positive. Although the index is still in the negative range, there has been a significant improvement (the current situation index rose by 15.2 points to 38.1, and the expected index rose by 8.5 points to 41.3), indicating signs of cost pressure stabilization. Market Outlook The prospects of many major markets in Hong Kong have slowed down slightly, just like the overall confidence. The continued pressure of US trade policy has dampened exporters' confidence, which is also reflected in both the current situation index (34.9) and the expected index (36.4). The uncertainty in the global trade environment caused by the US trade policy has slightly affected the expected indices of ASEAN (44.4), mainland China (43.8), and Japan (36.0). Industry Outlook The performance of several major industries is better than the overall index. Among them, the jewelry industry stands out, with the current situation index rising to 57.1 (up 5.9 points), and the expected index climbing to 56.0 (up 1.2 points) due to strong sales and a large number of new orders. The apparel industry has also seen a rebound, with its current situation index rising to 52.1 (up 6.1 points), and the expected index to 53.4 (up 9.2 points), indicating a continued improvement trend. However, the sentiment of electronic industry exporters is not as optimistic, with a current situation index of 44.9 and an expected index of 45.6.