Germany's energy anxiety has been completely ignited! Far-right political parties are loudly proclaiming "return to the era of cheap energy from Russia."

The continuously soaring prices of oil and natural gas are pushing Germany's far-right party to call on the German government to shift back towards Russian energy systems. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has seen an increase in support amidst high energy prices and economic concerns, but calls to resume importing Russian energy are strongly opposed by mainstream parties. The AfD tends to expand its policy focus to economic issues, thus gaining massive support among young voters. According to reports, the AfD is using the rising energy prices to reiterate its long-standing proposal after achieving significant results in two crucial state elections in Germany this month to call on Berlin to once again turn to Russian oil and gas supplies for cheap energy. Since the formal start of the war between the US and Israel against Iran a month ago, gasoline prices in Germany have risen by over 15%; the AfD's argument gained positive response among voters in Baden-Wrttemberg this month. The state has long been a stronghold of Germany's automotive industry. "This is a decisive policy issue," said Markus Frohnmaier, the AfD's lead candidate in Baden-Wrttemberg, pointing out that local energy prices are about twice as high as similar energy costs in China or the US. "This campaign is all about the economy, the economy, and the economy." Since the outbreak of the Middle East war on February 28, Brent crude oil has risen by over 50%; even though Trump has emphasized positive progress in negotiations with Iran and is willing to end the war in the Strait of Hormuz without reopening, Brent remains near historical highs of $110/barrel, with market logic still centered on "will the conflict prolong further" rather than single-day news related to negotiations. The European natural gas benchmark, the European TTF natural gas futures price, has seen even more exaggerated increases, with daily increases reaching up to 50%, exceeding 70% since the Iran war at the end of February. For Germany's energy system, the systemic importance of Russian pipeline natural gas has long been considered the highest; before the war (before the Russia-Ukraine war), Russia supplied over one-third of Germany's oil imports and over half of its natural gas demand. Looking at historical European energy supply data, Russian pipeline natural gas is usually much cheaper than liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US, Middle East, or Australia, which is particularly relevant for Germany; compared to the current more dependent US oil transportation system, the Russian oil transportation system has a strong price advantage, though its "irreplaceability" is significantly weaker for natural gas. The AfD has now become the second largest party in Germany The AfD won about 20% of the votes in Baden-Wrttemberg and the neighboring state of Rhineland-Palatinate, consolidating its position as Germany's second-largest mainstream party; in the latter state election, the party achieved its best result in Western state elections. "The situation of the German economy is currently very severe," said Frohnmaier. "Whether for Germany's energy sovereignty or for affordable electricity prices for German households... Germany must start importing Russian natural gas and oil again." Before the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, Russia supplied over one-third of Germany's oil imports and over half of its natural gas demand; the sudden closure of the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline forced Berlin to hastily seek alternative natural gas suppliers mainly by seeking LNG transport to stockpile natural gas resources, which now mainly come from the US and Middle East, and include Norway, the Netherlands, and Belgium on the European continent. Official statistics show that aside from very small amounts of imported liquefied natural gas through indirect means, Germany has completely eliminated Russian oil and natural gas resources from its energy mix. In the twenty years of Gerhard Schrder's and Angela Merkel's rule, Germany's economic model has been based on obtaining cheap Russian energy. The severe shock of moving away from cheap Russian energy has pushed the German economy into a two-year recession, and the economy is only now beginning to emerge from this historic economic downturn. Combined with the continuous unemployment of manufacturing companies due to higher energy costs such as oil and gas resources, as well as the increasingly fierce competition from markets in Asia such as China and India, this has helped the AfD's propaganda of Russian energy gain fertile ground. "This argument is much more closely related to people's daily lives than abstract geopolitical statements," said Johannes Hillje, a renowned political scientist and expert on the AfD. For many senior politicians in mainstream parties in Germany, the call to resume using Russian energy is part of a wider range of actions by this long-overlooked party sympathizing with Moscow's aggressive forces, aiming to weaken the trend towards isolating Russia. "The newly rising AfD is intentionally spreading the 'Russian growth narrative' in Germany," said Roderich Kiesewetter, a member of the parliamentary foreign affairs committee of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), to which Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, belongs. "If Russian oil and natural gas imports increase, this will have a series of disastrous consequences for European security and the trust of our partners in us." The AfD is helping to end Russia's isolation However, he also had to admit that even within his Christian Democratic Union colleagues and their Social Democratic coalition partners, some have called for a similar opening up of Russian energy, advocating for the resumption of trade and economic ties with Russia. Last month, the AfD won a ban, temporarily preventing Germany's domestic intelligence agency from classifying it as an "extremist" organization. The party is often described as far-right, though it disputes this label. It is worth noting that despite the rejection of the rising AfD by other mainstream parties in recent years, it has significantly expanded its support among young voters and working-class voters in Germany. Frohnmaier stated that German politicians do not need to worry that buying cheap Russian natural gas resources could boost Moscow's war machine in any way. "The voters did not elect us to represent the interests of the Ukrainian state," he emphasized. The AfD was initially able to quickly gain ground among young voters because of its opposition to the significant increase in immigration in recent years, but now it has increasingly expanded its focus to issues related to economic growth. "People will vote for parties that they believe can solve current cost of living and broader economic issues," Frohnmaier said, refuting claims that Germany has already ensured enough alternative sources of oil and natural gas. In eastern Germany, the influence of the argument about embracing cheap Russian energy may be even stronger. The AfD has a good chance of winning ultimate power in one of the three state elections to be held in Saxony-Anhalt in September. "There is a general perception among the German public that cutting off ties with Russia is a mistake," said Michael Kretschmer, governor of the eastern German state of Saxony. "And the further east you go, the stronger this feeling becomes." For the prospects of economic growth in Germany, cheap Russian pipeline natural gas is the best catalyst As for Germany's current way of obtaining Russian natural gas, there are no substantive direct imports, only a very small amount of "indirect contact." Today, if Germany can still "come into contact" with Russian natural gas, it is more in the form of indirect LNG molecules that pass through European terminals in Belgium, the Netherlands, and then enter the integrated European gas network, rather than the direct Russian-German pipeline gas mode used in the past. In terms of the importance of Germany's energy system, Russian oil and gas have been significant in the past, but the systemic importance lies more in natural gas. Before the war, Russia supplied over one-third of Germany's oil imports and over half of its natural gas demand; natural gas is not only a fuel for power generation in Germany, but is deeply embedded in the industrial, heating, and chemical raw material systems. According to data from the Federal Network Agency of Germany, in 2025, industrial consumption will account for 60% of Germany's natural gas consumption, while residential and commercial consumption will account for 40%. Germany's long-term reliance on Russian gas is because it provides crucially cheap inputs for the industrial system on which its economic growth depends. In contrast, oil is certainly important, but oil is a globally more liquid and substitutable commodity that is easier to find alternative sources for; natural gas resources are heavily constrained by transportation pipelines, LNG terminal capacity, storage capacity, and re-gasification capabilities, making them significantly more difficult to replace. For several decades, Germany's economic model has been based on obtaining "relatively cheap" Russian energy, particularly cheap Russian pipeline natural gas, forming the "cost foundation" of the entire German industrial system; compared to LNG, pipeline gas has three layers of cost savings liquefaction, long-distance transport, and re-gasification making it much more competitive during normal trade periods. Therefore, the core value that Russian natural gas has brought to German economic growth over the years can be described as "low cost + high stickiness," especially for the critical competitiveness of Germany's manufacturing industry and household heating.