CICC: Maintains CHINA RES MIXC (01209) outperform industry rating, target price of HKD 48.

CICC released a research report stating that the profit forecast for CHINA RES MIXC (01209) remains basically unchanged, with core net profit expected to increase by 12%/10% to 4.41 billion/4.86 billion yuan in 2026-27. The company maintains an outperform industry rating and a target price of 48 HK dollars, corresponding to a 2026 core P/E ratio of 22 times and 9% upside potential. The company's stock is trading at a 2026 core P/E ratio of 20 times and a 4.9% dividend yield for 2026. CICC's main points are as follows: Core net profit in 2025 slightly exceeded market expectations. The company announced its 2025 performance: revenue of 18.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%; core net profit of 3.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, slightly exceeding market expectations, mainly driven by the improvement of gross profit margin in the shopping center sector. The company's full-year dividend payout ratio is 100% (based on core net profit, 60% ordinary + 40% special dividend), corresponding to a dividend yield of 4.4%. Strong performance of shopping centers, steady market share expansion. In 2025, the retail sales of managed shopping centers increased by 23.7% year-on-year, with a same-store growth rate of 12.2% (significantly outperforming the total retail sales growth rate), and the same-store growth rate of luxury shopping centers of 15.3% outperformed the overall. In 2025, the operation efficiency of the shopping center segment was further improved, with the gross profit margin increasing by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year to 75.9%; the net operating profit margin on the owner's end increased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 65.7%. The company opened 14 new shopping centers throughout the year, reaching a total of 135, with 105 projects ranked in the top three in the local market; it also expanded 12 third-party projects with an average GFA of over 100,000 square meters. Property management operations are resilient, and cash flow management is effective. In 2025, the revenue of the property segment remained stable, with a 7% increase in gross profit, and the gross margin increased by 1.0 percentage point year-on-year to 18.0%, showing resilience in overall development driven by continuous quality improvement and efficiency enhancement; the newly developed third-party projects in 2025 grew slightly year-on-year to 35.3 million square meters. Since the second half of 2025, the company has focused on cash flow and receivables management, achieving a net operating cash flow coverage of 1.0 times core net profit for the year, with a broad cash balance of 15.8 billion yuan at year-end. Solid and resolute "14th Five-Year Plan" strategic planning. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the company will continue to deepen the business model of "business management + property management + big members," with the goal of creating a world-class urban quality life service provider and maintaining steady growth of the overall business. Specifically, 1) The business management business aims to open 100 new projects during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, operate 200 shopping centers by the end of the plan, and have 300 contracted projects; outperforming the same-store growth of social retail, opening about 15 new projects each year, with a compound annual growth rate of revenue and profit exceeding 10%; 2) Property management business aims for industry-leading development quality, achieving double-digit revenue compound growth rate; 3) Big member business aims to double revenue and profit by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan". Risk warning: The overall consumer environment or property management business environment may face unexpected pressure.