Geopolitical turmoil triggers a "golden discount"! Bernstein calls for bottom fishing in crypto stocks, quietly waiting for the big recovery of 2026 after Q1 negative news is exhausted.

Investment bank Bernstein stated that stocks related to cryptocurrency may be approaching a bottom. Bernstein analyst Guatam Chugani and his team wrote in a report, "The combination of political and temporary weakness in the cryptocurrency market is providing a 'huge discount' for cryptocurrency stocks." The stock prices of trading platforms Coinbase (COIN.US) and Robinhood (HOOD.US), as well as financial technology company Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR.US), have fallen by about 60% from their historical highs. Bitcoin, which surged to over $120,000 last summer and fall, is currently trading below $68,000. Bernstein maintains an "outperform" rating on these three cryptocurrency stocks. However, due to expected weak first quarter earnings to be announced later this spring, the firm has lowered their target prices. Chugani wrote, "We believe that as we approach the weak first quarter earnings releases, we will see cryptocurrency stocks hit bottom." However, analysts expect Coinbase's earnings per share to increase by 23% in 2026. They also believe that Robinhood and Figure, whose revenue is largely detached from cryptocurrency, demonstrate "stronger resilience." Figure is a pure blockchain tokenization business, and cryptocurrency-related revenue accounts for only about 20% of Robinhood's total sales. Chugani stated, "In our view, these businesses provide an opportunity to enter a trillion-dollar market and are expected to grow over the next few yearsincluding predicting markets, stablecoins, real-world assets (RWA) tokenization, cryptocurrency derivatives, and further beta gains from the recovery of cryptocurrency from the bottom." Bernstein recently predicted a recovery in the cryptocurrency market in 2026 and expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by the end of this year. The outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that appeared at the beginning of the year have recently reversed; ETFs currently hold about 6.1% of the total supply of Bitcoin. Additionally, digital asset financial giant MicroStrategy (MSTR.US) has been a strong buyer. Chugani stated that MicroStrategy currently holds about 3.6% of the total supply of Bitcoin. While Bitcoin has performed relatively well compared to other assets during the Iran conflict, some strategists do not agree. "It's just like any other asset, a risk asset," said Lee Munson, chief investment officer of Portfolio Wealth Advisors, when talking about cryptocurrency. He added that in the midst of a general market downturn caused by soaring oil prices, "the idea that any part of the market can be immune to any impact is extremely absurd."