Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures all rise, with aluminum stocks showing strength in pre-market trading. Trump threatens to destroy Iran's energy facilities if an agreement is not reached.

Pre-market market trends 1. Before the market on March 30th (Monday), the three major U.S. stock index futures all rose. As of press time, Dow Jones futures rose by 0.66%, S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.64%, and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.64%. 2. As of press time, the Germany DAX index rose by 0.12%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.87%, the France CAC40 index rose by 0.28%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose by 0.19%. 3. As of press time, WTI crude oil rose by 1.33% to $100.97 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 2.11% to $107.54 per barrel. Market News - Trump said that if Iran fails to reach a peace agreement, he will destroy Iran's energy facilities. Trump warned that if an agreement to end the war with Iran is not reached, he will destroy Iran's energy infrastructure, while also praising the productive negotiations. Additionally, French Finance Minister Roland Leuskur stated that G7 finance and energy officials will hold a meeting on Monday to assess the economic and financial impact of the Iran war. - The first monthly economic data after the Middle East conflict is released: U.S. consumer confidence has plummeted, can March non-farm jobs hold up? The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the U.S. March non-farm employment report on Friday, the highlight of this week's busy economic schedule. Investors are questioning whether employment numbers will return to normal after dramatic fluctuations in January and February. Additionally, on Tuesday, investors will receive reports on market sentiment and expectations from the World Federation of Great Enterprises; the JOLTS job vacancy report will also be released the same day; and on Thursday, we will receive additional labor market insights from the job placement company Challenger, Gray & Christmas. On the corporate front, NIKE, Inc. Class B (NIKE.US) is expected to release quarterly earnings on Tuesday. - Pullback nearing its end! Morgan Stanley supports U.S. stocks but warns that interest rate hikes remain a short-term risk. According to Morgan Stanley strategists, there is growing evidence that the decline in U.S. stocks is nearing the end, and they cite examples of past "growth panics" not followed by economic recessions or interest rate hikes. The strategists point out that more than half of the components of the Russell 3000 Index have fallen by more than 20% from their 52-week highs, and the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 Index has dropped by over 15%, indicating that market pricing increasingly reflects the risks of the Middle East war. The strategists stated, "We believe that market complacency to growth risks is lower than generally believed." However, the strategists also warn that interest rate hikes remain one of the short-term risks facing the U.S. stock market. In recent years, stock sensitivity to interest rate changes has reached near historic highs. Meanwhile, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is nearing the 4.5% level, which historically puts pressure on stock valuations. - Inflation impact will eventually turn into growth impact! JP Morgan, PIMCO warn that the bond market significantly underestimates the risk of a slowdown in the U.S. economy. Some top Wall Street bond fund managers say that the financial markets significantly underestimate the risk of a sharp slowdown in the already weak U.S. economy caused by the military strike launched by the U.S. against Iran. Asset management giants such as PIMCO and JPMorgan Chase have begun positioning for a potential economic downturn, predicting that a weakening economy will trigger a rebound in the bond market, pushing yields significantly lower. Kelsey Berro, fixed income portfolio manager at JPMorgan Chase Asset Management, said, "For every day the conflict continues, the market is one step closer to facing the negative effects on economic growth, which will ultimately push down U.S. bond yields. Overall yields have risen to attractive levels." PIMCO Chief Investment Officer Daniel Ivascyn said, "Starting from inflation impact, it often quickly evolves into growth impact. We are standing at the critical point of significant economic weakness." - Bank of America warns that U.S. stocks, bonds, and gold will come under pressure in the second quarter, while the U.S. dollar and oil prices may emerge as winners. Bank of America Securities' new outlook shows that stocks, bonds, and gold will face challenges in the second quarter, with the U.S. dollar and oil markets expected to strengthen. Technical analyst Paul Sienna noted in a report on March 27 that recent market trends have confirmed previous forecasts, including rising U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and higher oil prices. Unless there is a significant turnaround in the macroeconomic situation leading to a sharp reversal, these trends are expected to continue. The bank said that the S&P 500 Index has formed a top formation and entered a downtrend since breaking below key technical levels in early March. If the current trend continues, the index could further decline to the 6000-point low range. - Middle East aluminum industry giants suffer targeted attacks! Iranian attacks on plants trigger major supply shocks, LME aluminum prices surge. As of press time, LME aluminum futures rose by over 4% to $3423 per ton. Earlier, Iran attacked two aluminum production bases in the Middle East, which could exacerbate supply disruptions in the region, which accounts for a significant proportion of global production. The largest aluminum producer in the Middle East, Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA), stated last Saturday that its facility in Abu Dhabi suffered "significant damage," while the state-owned company Bahrain Aluminum Industry is evaluating the damage to its facilities. This attack has dealt another blow to the bulk commodities industry in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz is essentially blocked, with producers of various commodities such as energy and fertilizers unable to export normally. The Middle East accounts for about 9% of global aluminum supply, with much of it currently trapped inside the strait. In addition to shipping interruptions, key industrial facilities were damaged in the attacks. It is expected that even if the conflict ends, the recovery of production operations will take longer. Stock News - U.S. aluminum stocks rise collectively before the market. Alcoa Corporation (AA.US) and Century Aluminum Company (CENX.US) both rose by over 9% in pre-market trading on Monday. - Cisco Systems, Inc. (SYY.US) plunges before the market amid reports of nearing a $29 billion acquisition of Restaurant Depot. According to reports, the large U.S. food distributor Cisco Systems, Inc. is close to reaching an agreement to acquire the private company Restaurant Depot for approximately $29 billion (including debt). The deal is expected to be announced later on Monday, with the valuation corresponding to more than 14 times Restaurant Depot's revenue. By acquiring Restaurant Depot, Cisco Systems, Inc. will gain access to a channel with higher profit margins and a growing click-and-mortar distribution model. As of press time, Cisco Systems, Inc. fell by over 6% in pre-market trading on Monday. - Japanese automakers such as Toyota (TM.US) saw collective sales declines in February, and the Middle East conflict is evolving into a greater challenge for the supply chain. Toyota Motor Corp. Sponsored ADR announced on Monday that global sales in February dropped by 2.3% year-on-year to 806,905 units. Honda Motor Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR announced on Monday that its global sales in February fell by 6.6% year-on-year to 249,414 units. While these performances occurred before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict on February 28 and do not yet reflect the impact of the Middle East situation on the supply chain, the conflict is becoming a greater challenge for the Japanese automotive industry. About 70% of Japanese automakers' aluminum materials rely on supply from the Middle East, and as supply chain uncertainties worsen, automakers have gradually reduced production. - Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY.US)'s new drug Camzyos successfully completed Phase III clinical trials and is expected to become the first treatment for rare heart disease in adolescents. Bristol Myers Squibb announced positive results from the Phase III clinical trial of their heart disease drug Camzyos last Sunday, which is expected to become the first approved treatment for adolescents with a rare severe heart disease. The study targeted adolescents with obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. This disease can cause an increase in resistance to blood flow in the heart, leading to severe clinical symptoms. Currently, there is no specifically approved targeted therapy for underage patients, with clinical physicians generally having to follow adult treatment regimens. In this Phase III trial, compared to the placebo group, Camzyos significantly reduced the internal pressure that causes heart obstruction. After about six months of treatment, participants showed significant improvements in heart function, clinical symptoms, and exercise tolerance. Medical experts involved in the study stated that the results are a significant breakthrough in this field. Important Economic Data and Events Forecast - 10:30 pm Beijing time: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell participates in a moderated discussion in an economics course at Harvard University. - 4:00 am the next day Beijing time: FOMC permanent committee members, New York Fed President Williams deliver speeches. Earnings Forecast - Before the market on Tuesday: Jiayin Technology (JFIN.US)