Key Points from Broker Morning Meeting: Sticking to China's Manufacturing Industry Advantages, Awaiting Decisions in April

Last Friday, the market opened low and closed high, with the Shenzhen Component Index rising over 1%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was only 1.85 trillion. In terms of sectors, the lithium battery industry chain, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals performed well. On the downside, many stocks in the green energy sector declined. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.13%, and the Growth Enterprise Index rose by 0.71%. At the brokerage morning meeting today, CITIC SEC believes in sticking to China's advantage in manufacturing and waiting for the decision in April; Xingzheng Securities believes that time will stand on the side of economic certainty; Founder believes that the new rocket launch window in 2026 will be approaching, and there will be resonance in the progress of commercial space cooperation between China and the United States. CITIC SEC: Stick to China's advantage in manufacturing, and wait for the decision in April After Trump's TACO last Monday, the situation in the Middle East may present a delicate balance between the two sides in mutual deterrence, while preventing the situation from getting out of control. The fact of supply chain interruption has not been reversed, but there is a possibility of intermittent navigation before a ceasefire agreement is reached. In an environment where global rules and order are gradually losing, countries with resource, geographical, and manufacturing advantages will leverage these comparative advantages to seek survival and development. In the context of the Middle East war, the intermittent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may be a tool used to balance American actions, and the probability of continuous and repeated energy supply disruptions is increasing. However, the impact of energy and resource supply disruptions on industrial demand may be different from the 1970s and 1980s. At that time, Europe and the United States were already in the early stage of deindustrialization, outsourcing production, and promoting globalization. The two oil crises actually accelerated this process. Currently, global countries are experiencing an increase in insecurity and are advancing in re-industrialization This is the biggest background difference and will also affect future analytical frameworks. In terms of the direct impact of events, the acceleration of global electrification, the transfer of more overseas orders to domestic manufacturers, and more supply chain diplomacy are three directions worth paying attention to. In the short term, the capital market is still in a period of emotional cooling, and the mentality of avoiding losses may lead to some liquidation demands. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to continue to stick to China's advantage in manufacturing and wait for the decision in April. Xingzheng Securities: Time will stand on the side of economic certainty Looking forward to April, as the market focuses more on the economy during the performance period, time will stand on the side of "economic certainty" for the above three "certainties." The following deductions can be made for the subsequent structure: 1) For technological and outbound supply chain varieties, after being discounted due to the concentrated pricing of geopolitical risks and liquidity tightening expectations in the previous period, they are expected to focus on independent industries during the performance period, as they have their own independent industry trends and are less affected by oil prices. They may become a certain direction that the market gradually focuses on, and more high-performing directions are expected to perform well; 2) For varieties in the rising price chain, with a significant increase in price clue in the first quarter, the overall economic outlook is expected to be verified by the financial report, which is another clue that cannot be ignored apart from technological growth, but internally it will likely differentiate according to the economy, especially for varieties in which rising costs are driven by oil; 3) For some dividend and domestic demand varieties driven purely by hedging sentiment, if the financial reporting season fails to verify the economy, the probability of excess benefits in the future will gradually decline. Founder: The new rocket launch window in 2026 will be approaching, and there will be resonance in the progress of commercial space cooperation between China and the United States The domestic satellite batch bid is imminent, various types of rockets at home and abroad are about to make their first flight, and the landing of functions such as mobile direct connection will drive further iteration of satellite performance. Subsequently, satellites will enter a phase of both quantity and price increase. It is recommended to focus on satellite value-added links (power systems, laser links, etc.), core components of rockets, core suppliers of star network Yuanshin, and opportunities brought by the phased networking completion on the ground. This article is reprinted from "Cai Lianshe". GMTEight Editor: Huang Xiaodong.