US oil once again rose above $100. Is Trump's "mouth cannon" ineffective? Market experts: Investors' trust in him is decreasing.

On Friday, international oil prices rose again, and US President Trump's repeated "easing signals" failed to stabilize the market, instead causing investors to question its policy influence. The price of US crude oil briefly touched an intraday high of $100.04 per barrel and then fell slightly. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures closed up 5.46% at $99.64 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude oil futures for May delivery rose 4.05% to $112.38 per barrel. At the same time, the US Oil Fund (USO.US), which tracks oil prices, rose 5.9% during the day and continued to rise after hours, showing continued inflow of funds into energy assets. Although Trump has postponed the deadline for striking Iranian energy facilities to April 6 and has repeatedly hinted at progress in negotiations, oil prices have not shown a significant decline. Market participants pointed out that this indicates a decrease in investor trust in policy "verbal appeasement" and a preference for trading based on actual situations. Risk factors continue to accumulate. Iran continues to strengthen its control over the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, the US has warned that Iran may levy high tolls on passing vessels, further exacerbating concerns about the energy supply system in the market. Analysts believe that the current trend of oil prices has moved away from the short-term policy statements, reflecting more the overlay of supply and demand fundamentals and geopolitical risks. On the one hand, the prolonged duration of conflicts has weakened market expectations for a quick ceasefire; on the other hand, the uncertainty in energy supply is gradually turning into price premiums. At the same time, market confidence in the so-called "Trump put options" (the ability to stabilize the market through policy statements) is beginning to erode. Some institutions point out that frequent policy statements and adjustments are weakening their marginal effects, and investors are no longer reacting solely based on statements but are waiting for more clear actual actions. Overall, against the backdrop of unresolved conflicts and ongoing energy supply risks, international oil prices are still operating at high levels. As the critical deadline of April 6 approaches, market volatility may further intensify, while the influence of policy statements on the market is clearly weakening.