Ignore market fluctuations! Citigroup insists on being bullish on US stocks, maintaining an optimistic forecast of the S&P 500 index reaching 7700 points by the end of the year.

Despite escalating geopolitical risks and increasing macroeconomic uncertainty dragging down market sentiment, Citigroup still maintains an optimistic outlook on the benchmark indices of the US stock market and has not made any adjustments to its full-year targets. In its latest client report, Citigroup reiterated its year-end benchmark forecast for the S&P 500 Index at 7700 points. This prediction is based on an earnings estimate of around $320 per share, with the bank believing that this earnings assumption may even be conservative. In addition, Citigroup also presents an optimistic scenario, expecting the S&P 500 to rise to 8300 points with the help of better-than-expected corporate profit growth and slight valuation expansion; in a pessimistic scenario, if fundamentals weaken and valuations contract, the index could fall to 5700 points. Citigroup points out that the challenges facing the current market are increasing, including escalating geopolitical conflicts related to Iran, as well as structural impacts brought by artificial intelligence, potential risks in the private credit market, and global trade policy uncertainties. Nevertheless, the bank states that it is not adjusting its full-year forecast for now. The report states: "We currently maintain our full-year target unchanged." In terms of market performance, the S&P 500 is currently trading around 6417 points, down about 6.7% year-to-date. To achieve Citigroup's benchmark scenario target, the index would need to rise by about 20% from its current level, demonstrating the bank's relatively optimistic expectations for future rebound potential. Analysts believe that amid ongoing disruptions from risk factors, Citigroup's maintenance of high target levels reflects its confidence in corporate earnings resilience. However, whether this expectation can be realized still depends on the evolution of key variables such as geopolitics, inflation paths, and policy environments.