The number of initial jobless claims in the United States remained steady last week, while continuing claims reached a two-year low, solidifying the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance.

The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased slightly last week, indicating that the labor market remains stable and providing the Federal Reserve with room to maintain interest rates unchanged amid concerns about inflation risks stemming from the Middle East conflict. The US Department of Labor reported on Thursday that the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims rose by 5,000 to 210,000 in the week ending March 21, in line with economists' expectations. Despite recent layoffs at well-known companies such as Paramount (PSKY.US) and Meta Platforms (META.US), the number of initial jobless claims continues to remain low. Against the backdrop of low layoff rates this year, initial jobless claims have remained in a narrow range of 201,000 to 230,000. Economists point out that the ongoing uncertainty caused by the Trump administration's aggressive import tariff policies has weakened business demand for labor. In the three months leading up to February of this year, the US private sector only added an average of 18,000 non-farm jobs per month. Additionally, Trump's tough immigration policies have reduced the labor supply and have hindered employment growth. Economist Eliza Winger stated, ''The number of initial jobless claims being below year-ago levels for the sixth consecutive week highlights the limited scale of layoffs, indicating a certain degree of stability in the labor market.'' This situation, as mentioned by Federal Reserve Chair Powell earlier this month, has formed a "zero employment growth equilibrium state" with "downside risks." While economists expect the stable trend in the labor market to continue, concerns about soaring inflation have arisen due to the conflict between the US and Iran. Since the end of February conflict erupted, oil prices have surged by over 30%. In February, US import and producer prices saw significant increases, with economists forecasting that the conflict has also raised fertilizer prices, which will be reflected in consumer inflation data for March. As the conflict continues, economists have been revising their inflation expectations upwards for this year. The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 3.50% to 3.75% this month, with policymakers expecting only one rate cut this year. Financial markets, however, believe that the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is continuing to decrease. The initial jobless claims report also showed that in the week ending March 14, continuing jobless claims (which can serve as a reference indicator for hiring conditions) decreased by 32,000 to 1.819 million after seasonal adjustments, marking the lowest level in nearly two years. The data's statistical period coincides with the household survey period conducted by the government to compile the March unemployment rate. While continuing jobless claims have declined from their peak last year, this may partly reflect some individuals exhausting their eligibility for unemployment benefitsmost states in the US have a maximum unemployment benefit period of 26 weeks. Recent college graduates who were unemployed last year are not included in this data as they often have limited work experience or no formal employment record, making them ineligible to apply for benefits. The US unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in January to 4.4% in February.