The LNG industry chain welcomes a super cycle! Global supply and demand landscape reshaped, Goldman Sachs bets on three giants.

Analysts from the financial giant Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. recently released a research report, stating that the new round of Middle East political conflict ignited by the US-Israel alliance may cause long-lasting damage to the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply side, potentially keeping global LNG prices near historic highs for a longer period than previously expected by the market. The analysts from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. stated that this largely means that the stock prices of some LNG producers or companies focusing on LNG transportation may still have further room for growth, therefore they recommend continuing to buy three major popular LNG stocks in the US market on dips: Cheniere (LNG.US), Venture Global (VG.US), and Golar LNG (GLNG.US). In recent days, global stock markets, especially those closely related to artificial intelligence, have continued to rise due to optimistic sentiments from investors and traders that the Iran war may soon be coming to an end. However, the analysts team at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. believes that even after this round of war ends, the long-lasting capacity damage suffered by the liquefied natural gas giants in the Gulf region may continue to keep prices near historic highs for a significant period after the situation is resolved - which also means that the stock prices of some LNG producers or LNG transportation leaders still have significant room for further growth. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. conservatively estimates that it may take 3 to 5 years for global LNG supply to recover from the capacity damage in the Middle East, which would keep the global liquefied natural gas market tight for a longer period. The analysts at the firm suggest that now is the time to buy stocks of major North American LNG industry leaders Cheniere, Venture Global, and Golar LNG on dips, and have raised their target prices for these stocks within the next 12 months, indicating that the strong rally in these stocks so far this year may continue, embracing a stronger cycle of profit expansion and valuation adjustment. For Cheniere, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. significantly raised their target stock price from $276 to $312, and as of Wednesday's closing on the US stock market, Cheniere's stock price ended at $284.39; for Venture Global, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. raised their target stock price from $15 to $18.50, and as of Wednesday's closing on the US stock market, Venture Global's stock price ended at $16.71; for Golar LNG, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. raised their target stock price from the recently raised $55 to $60, and as of Wednesday's closing on the US stock market, Golar LNG's stock price ended at $53.090. LNG industry chain undergoes revaluation! Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. warns LNG supply gap will span a global cold winter Despite significant declines of over 3% in the stock prices of Cheniere and Golar during the US stock trading period on Wednesday due to the release of negotiation signals from the United States pushing energy stocks down, the stock prices of these two major US LNG industry giants have risen by over 40% since the beginning of the year. Venture Global saw an increase of nearly 1% at Wednesday's US stock market close, with its market value more than doubling since the beginning of the year, and its stock price soaring by over 145% so far this year. On Wednesday, as Western media continuously reported positive progress in negotiations between the US and Iran, the overall US stock market and technology stocks saw an uptrend, and the energy sector which had seen a strong rally since the end of February when the US launched airstrikes against Iran became one of the few sectors that declined. However, as expectations on the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations fluctuate and Iran explicitly states that it has no intention of direct negotiations with the US, emphasizing that Iran communicating with mediators does not mean negotiating with the US, combined with Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s market research report to clients this week stating that even if the war situation eases quickly, it may still take three to five years for some damaged liquefied natural gas facilities to come back online, and these facilities account for at least 3% of global supply, meaning that the LNG industry chain may continue to attract significant global capital inflows in the future. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. analysts currently expect that the tight supply situation may continue until the next winter, and the longer the war drags on, the greater the possibility of continued pressure on the supply side. The analysts at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. emphasized that Cheniere and Venture Global are planning to significantly expand LNG infrastructure to increase capacity, therefore they may be more capable of benefiting from the tightening global balance of gas supply and demand; at the same time, they believe that Golar will continue to benefit from the significant growth trend in its backlog of orders. Cheniere, Venture Global, and Golar LNG are all leaders in the LNG chain, but represent three different LNG business models - Cheniere is a large LNG liquefaction and export terminal operator along the US Gulf Coast, officially claiming to be the largest LNG producer and exporter in the US, the world's second-largest LNG producer, covering the entire LNG delivery process from gas production, procurement and transportation, liquefaction, to LNG shipping arrangements, making it the most typical "onshore LNG export leader." Venture Global is a more "expansion-oriented" emerging US LNG producer and exporter, largely representing the increase in US LNG supply, known as the "highly elastic offensive variety" in the LNG investment theme, with total current, under construction, and planned capacity exceeding 100MTPA, and businesses integrating LNG production, liquefied natural gas transportation, shipping, and regasification on a deeper level of integration. It is worth noting that around 31% of Venture Global's production is not covered by long-term contracts by 2026, making it far more sensitive to spot and short-term price spikes compared to Cheniere. Golar LNG is not a traditional onshore export and capacity giant, but focuses on the FLNG (Floating Liquefied Natural Gas) offshore infrastructure platform. The company defines itself as a company that "designs, converts, owns, and operates large offshore infrastructure that converts natural gas into LNG," representing a more flexible, decentralized LNG solution at sea. The company has industry-leading FLNG technology, a backlog of long-term contracts, and growth pipelines, and also represents the structural beneficiary of the global LNG supply chain moving away from a concentrated Middle Eastern structure post-Hormuz era. The global LNG investment theme is transitioning from a "cyclical trading" logic to a new paradigm of "GEO Group Inc. security premium + supply resilience premium + production capacity premium," where the market's trade logic for the LNG industry chain is not short-term sentiment but rather the reevaluation of commitments under the political security of GEO Group Inc., supply chain vulnerability, and imbalances in supply and demand. As the tight LNG supply may continue into the winter and beyond, the marginal pricing power of global LNG is shifting away from low-cost production in the Middle East to a more secure, expandable, and more interchangeable global floating LNG supply. This is also the core logic behind Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s long-term bullish outlook on Cheniere, Venture Global, and Golar LNG. However, not all energy companies on the LNG industry chain will benefit indiscriminately, but rather those with secure LNG shipping routes, global coverage of offshore infrastructure platforms, huge production expansion projects, limited spot elasticity, or floating solution capabilities are more likely to enjoy longer-term profit expansion and valuation adjustments in a super cycle.