The increase in US import prices in February hit a nearly four-year high, indicating looming inflation pressure before the war.

Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that in February 2026, US import prices surged by 1.3% compared to the previous month. This increase not only far exceeded the market's previous expectation of 0.5%, but also marked the largest increase in nearly four years, reflecting a general upward trend in prices even before the outbreak of the Middle East war. Analysis of the data showed that the rise in oil and natural gas prices was the core drive behind the overall index. Even after excluding the oil factor, import costs still rose by 1.2%, the largest increase since January 2022, mainly driven by the rise in prices of capital goods and consumer goods other than automobiles. While import prices were rising, US export prices also saw a strong growth of 1.5% in February, the largest increase since May 2022. The accelerated rise in import prices highlights the increasing risk of resurging inflation. Companies are facing pressure from rising energy costs related to the war with Iran, while US importers also need to deal with the challenges brought by the Trump administration's increased import tariffs. It is worth noting that the government's import price data does not include the impact of tariffs. Compared to February 2025, the import price index excluding oil rose by 2.8%, the largest increase since October 2022, indicating that the burden of tariffs mainly falls on US importers. Meanwhile, the depreciation of the US dollar since the beginning of last year may ultimately make it more expensive for domestic importers to purchase foreign-made goods. If the decline in the US dollar continues, it may also support demand for US-made goods. It is worth mentioning that this strong upward trend in import and export prices, along with the recent trend in the Producer Price Index (PPI), reveals the severe risk of accelerating inflation in the US after a long period of slowdown. Since the outbreak of conflict at the end of February, global crude oil prices have risen by more than 30%, directly leading to the US domestic average gasoline prices reaching a multi-year high of over $3.84 per gallon, further increasing operating costs for businesses and consumer spending. From a macro policy perspective, the unexpected jump in import prices has made the path of interest rates for the Federal Reserve more uncertain. As input costs pressure may transmit to the final consumer side in the coming months, the financial markets have already adjusted their previously optimistic expectations for rate cuts. Currently, mainstream institutions believe that in the face of potential risks of secondary inflation and extreme geopolitical uncertainty, the Federal Reserve may maintain a high interest rate policy for a longer period in the short term, or even postpone the timing of rate cuts until after September to prevent inflation expectations from getting out of control again.