Hormuz shipping tracking: multiple ships successfully pass through.

Industry experts pointed out that Iran appears to be adopting a new "precision strategy" for the vital Strait of Hormuz, only allowing specific ships to pass through this crucial waterway. While this practice may restore some shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, analysts suggest that the global oil market may still underestimate the further supply shortage risks associated with this new strategy. Matt Smith, Chief Analyst at Kpler USA, stated that tankers carrying Iranian oil are still passing through this maritime chokepoint, which is crucial for about one-third of global maritime oil transport. Additionally, a few ships permitted by Iran are also passing through the strait. In a post published on the MarineTraffic platform on Tuesday, which provides real-time ship location and navigation data globally, Kpler's subsidiary indicated that Iran seems to be implementing a "selective vessel passage" strategy in the strait to send a "strategic signal," rather than enforcing a complete halt on global oil supply passing through the waterway. The post included a dynamic map showing sparse ship traffic in the waterway. It can be seen that some ships are crossing the territorial waters north of Iran's Larak Island. According to data released by MarineTraffic earlier on Tuesday, nine ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since Monday. Earlier on Tuesday, Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow confirmed that, following negotiations with Iran and Oman, a Thai oil tanker that had been anchored in the Persian Gulf for several days had successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz. It is reported that Iran further clarified the conditions for passage through the strait in a letter distributed to member countries of the International Maritime Organization on Tuesday. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated in the letter that "non-hostile ships" can pass through the Strait of Hormuz with coordination with Iranian authorities. The letter indicated that foreign ships are allowed to transit the Strait of Hormuz as long as they do not assist in acts of aggression against the country and comply with relevant regulations set by the Iranian government. Nations that coordinate with Iranian authorities can enjoy safe passage. Iran also reiterated in the letter that ships related to the United States, Israel, and other countries involved in attacking Iran do not qualify for non-hostile passage. "Transit fee" rumors abound It is worth mentioning that as Iran devises a new strategy for maritime operations in the Strait of Hormuz, rumors have emerged recently about Iran demanding a "transit fee" from ships passing through the strait. Several media outlets reported on Tuesday that Iran had started charging ships passing through the strait fees as high as $2 million. Smith stated that Kpler could not confirm reports of such transit fees. Previously, Iranian member of parliament Somayeh Rafiei proposed a bill last week that called for countries using the strait for shipping, energy transit, and food supply to pay "passage fees and taxes" to Iran as compensation for maintaining regional security. Rafiei said, "If the Strait of Hormuz is used as a secure passage for shipping, energy transport, and food supply, the concerned countries will be required to pay passage fees and taxes to Iran." However, according to a report by CCTV News, the Iranian Embassy in India denied claims that passing ships were being charged $2 million, calling the reports "baseless." On Tuesday, the HormuzTracker, which provides a dashboard of data on disruptions in the shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, showed that about 2,500 ships are still stranded in the Persian Gulf, with another 400 waiting outside the strait. Smith stated that as the conflict in Iran continues, the biggest surprise currently is that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. At the same time, the world appears to still be "underestimating the imminent supply shortages and fuel price hikes caused by this." According to a report by JPMorgan strategists, nearly 16 million barrels of oil are currently "effectively stranded" in the global market every day due to the stagnation of transportation through the strait. They estimate that by April, this gap could still reach 10 million barrels per day. Future developments unpredictable Regarding how the situation will unfold in the future, Stephen Innes, Managing Partner at SPI Asset Management, stated in his comments on Tuesday that the war involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz has "no ready-made historical template" to follow. "For a strategic chokepoint of this scale, involving a supply disruption impact which, military uncertainties, and global energy infrastructure intertwined in the same risk knot, there are no clear-cut analogies at the moment," Innes pointed out. He added that the biggest variable is not the oil itself. "The key is the time," he said, stating that it is currently impossible to accurately predict how long this oil shock will last. Innes noted that the market can only estimate which oil can be rerouted, which can be substituted, and which cannot. He stated that the market can also measure the limits of strategic oil reserve releases, idle capacity, transportation restrictions, and refinery substitutions. Innes cited a recent report by JPMorgan, indicating that recent global measures to stabilize oil prices may help reduce the supply gap in the global oil market from the current 16 million barrels per day to 10 million barrels per day in April. In this sense, "policymakers may be able to cushion the shock but cannot eliminate the physical bottlenecks," he said. This article is reprinted from "Cailianshe," author: Xiaoxiang; GMTEight editor: Feng Qiuyi.