CICC: Maintains MINTH GROUP "outperform" rating, raises target price to HK$45.

CICC released a research report stating that due to the rise in raw material costs, the net profit of MINTH GROUP-100 (00425) for 2026 was reduced by 6.4% to 3.13 billion yuan, and the profit forecast for 2027 was introduced for the first time at 3.85 billion yuan. Considering the high growth potential of the company's emerging business revenue in 2027, the valuation will switch to 2027; the current stock price of the company corresponds to a 10x 27E P/E, maintaining an outperform industry rating, raising the target price by 17% to 45 Hong Kong dollars, corresponding to a 12x 27E P/E, with a 25% potential upside from the current price. CICC's main points are as follows: Performance in 2025 meets the bank's expectations Performance in 2025: Operating income in 2H25 was 13.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +11.6% / quarter-on-quarter +9.5%; net profit attributable to parent company was 1.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +14.2% / quarter-on-quarter +17.0%. The year-on-year growth rate of domestic revenue in 2H25 turned positive, and the reliance on joint venture customers further decreased. By region, the operating income in the international market/domestic market in 2H25 was 8.35/5.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +15.0% / +6.3%, and the year-on-year growth rate of domestic revenue turned positive. By business segment, the revenue from battery boxes/aluminum parts/plastic parts/metal and decorative strips in 2H25 was 3.95/2.43/3.27/2.87 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +34.0%/-4.7% / +8.1%/-2.6% respectively. By customer, the revenue from Chinese and European customers in 2025 continued to increase, and the revenue from joint venture customers decreased to 20%. The gross profit margin of the battery box reached a new high both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, and the dividend ratio was increased to 30%. In 2H25, the company's gross profit margin was 27.8%, a year-on-year decrease of -1.6ppt / quarter-on-quarter decrease of -0.5ppt. By business segment, the gross profit margin of the battery box business reached a new high of 24.7% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, while the gross profit margin of the aluminum parts decreased to 30.3% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter due to lower-than-expected production scale. Sales / management / R&D expenses in 2H25 were 5.2/10.6/7.8 billion yuan, with a total expense ratio of 17.5%, a year-on-year decrease of -0.3ppt. The company's capital expenditure in 2025 was about 2.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, mainly for the construction of key international production bases and emerging businesses. The company plans to distribute a dividend of HK$ 0.764 per share, totaling 810 million yuan, with a dividend ratio of 30%. Benefitting from the European new energy transition; rapid growth in emerging business revenue In 2025, the company secured new orders worth 75.7 billion yuan, with breakthroughs in the battery box and body chassis structural parts business with leading new energy customers in China. The bank believes that the company is expected to continue to benefit from the accelerated transition to new energy in the European Union, and the acquisition of leading customers in China is expected to support its steady growth in domestic revenue in 2026; in addition, the company has achieved multiple cooperation in the fields of humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, AI computing infrastructure, and is expected to contribute revenue of hundreds of millions of yuan in 2026. Risk warning: European and domestic new energy sales growth may be lower than expected; demand for emerging business may be lower than expected.