The U.S. side is pushing for a ceasefire in Iran to boost market optimism! Oil prices and the U.S. dollar both fell, while U.S. stock futures, gold, and silver rose in response.

After news that the Trump administration is seeking a one-month ceasefire for negotiations, market optimism has increased, with oil prices and the US dollar falling, while US stock futures, gold, and silver all rising. Data shows that as of the time of writing, WTI crude oil futures fell nearly 4% to $88.89 per barrel, dropping to $87.82 per barrel at one point. Dollar index fell 0.24% to 99.20. The three major US stock index futures all rose, with Dow futures up 0.73%, S&P 500 futures up 0.75%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.86%. Gold spot rose 1.36% to $4535 per ounce, and silver spot rose nearly 2% to $72.61 per ounce. It is worth mentioning that gold spot rose 3.14% on Tuesday, ending nine consecutive days of decline. According to reports, the US has proposed a negotiation plan with Iran containing "15 conditions", including Iran dismantling its current nuclear capabilities, committing not to develop nuclear weapons, and banning uranium enrichment on its soil. In exchange, Iran may receive full relief from international sanctions and US support for its civilian nuclear projects. It is understood that the US is considering pushing for a one-month ceasefire in order to further negotiate the above terms. The US is reportedly in discussions with multiple intermediaries to hold high-level peace talks with Iran as soon as this week, but is still waiting for a response from Iran. Trump appears to be seeking serious negotiations with Iran while also keeping the option of "taking action at any time." The US is reportedly planning to deploy about 3,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East. Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group, said, "In this market dominated by news, crude oil is still the forefront indicator. Reports of a possible one-month ceasefire agreement are easing the most extreme pricing scenarios and concerns about demand destruction. While details are still limited and news is changing, signs of an exit path are reducing some of the risk premiums in the market." In addition, President Trump hinted that Iran has sent a "gift" in negotiations as a gesture of goodwill, which is related to the transportation through the Hormuz Strait. Sources say that Iran has begun to impose transit fees on some commercial ships passing through the Hormuz Strait, the latest sign of its tightening control over this vital energy sea route. However, Iran has stated that non-hostile foreign ships can still pass through the waterway according to their regulations. Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, said, "Everything ultimately depends on the reopening of the Hormuz Strait. Therefore, even if we hear 'good progress' in negotiations this weekend, if the strait remains highly restricted, it is still not enough." In addition to the political risk of GEO Group Inc, Matt Maley also pointed out that the problems in the private credit market have not eased, so ignoring these issues "is not a good idea." The two giants in the private credit field, Ares Management (ARES.US) and Apollo Global Management Inc (APO.US), are restricting investors from redeeming funds, and even unable to withdraw half of their requested amount, indicating that the market pressure of the $1.8 trillion market is intensifying. Thierry Wizman, an analyst at Macquarie Group, believes that the optimism that the Middle East war will end in the US's attempt to ensure and control the Hormuz Strait or to gain more leverage in negotiations with Iran still seems misplaced. He said, "The longer oil prices stay high, the more central banks may feel the need to show a tightening policy stance." He also pointed out that the financial pressures caused by hawkish policies towards supply-side-induced inflation are much greater than those of demand-driven inflation. Affected by the Middle East war, US business activity growth slowed to nearly a year low in March, and prices for raw materials and other inputs have risen. Tiffany Wilding and Andrew Balls of The Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) said, "If this is proven to be just short-term disturbances reflected in the current pricing of the market, then the base case still assumes moderate global economic growth. However, if the disturbances last longer, it will bring more severe challenges and increase the risk of a global recession."