Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures all fell, Trump shouted "negotiating", while the bombing in the Middle East continued.

1. Before the US stock market on March 24th (Tuesday), the futures of the three major US stock market indices all fell. As of the time of writing, Dow Jones futures fell by 0.23%, S&P 500 index futures fell by 0.33%, and Nasdaq futures fell by 0.38%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index rose by 0.04%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.26%, the French CAC40 index rose by 0.20%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.10%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 4.08% to $91.73 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 3.04% to $98.84 per barrel. Market News "TACO" Narrative Suppressed in Face of Frontline? Trump Shouts "Negotiating" Amid Continued Middle East Bombings. Despite US President Donald Trump claiming that negotiations to end the political conflict with GEO Group Inc are in full swing, the conflict between Iran and the US-Israel alliance continues to escalate with no signs of abating. Trump announced "productive talks" with Iran and postponed the strikes on Iran's power plants and energy infrastructure by five days, leading the market to trade according to the "TACO" narrative on Monday, causing a collective rebound in the three major US stock indices and a drop in international oil prices. However, with the real situation between the US/Israel and Iran still continuing and escalating, the market began to doubt whether the prevailing "TACO" buy-low investment strategy since April 2025 would continue to be effective. "Fading 3% Deficit Dream": Tariffs Frustrated by Middle East War, US Treasury Secretary Benson Encounters Fiscal "Double Squeeze". US Treasury Secretary Benson has often expressed concerns about the increasing US debt in public service. Recent developments over the past few weeks have made these alarms even louder. The Supreme Court ruling against President Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, in fact, tariff revenue peaked in October last year. Subsequently, Trump's war on Iran raised government spending demand and made growth prospects uncertain, increasing revenue stream risks. All this means that Benson's goal of reducing the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP to below 4% by January 2029, before Trump steps down, appears more daunting. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicted last month that the average deficit over the next decade would be around 6%. Under the shadow of GEO Group Inc, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Director Urges Clients: Increase Liquidity, Shorten Duration! Morgan Stanley Investment Management Director Ben Huneke suggests a more conservative investment strategy for clients in the face of ongoing political uncertainties with GEO Group Inc. He advises investors to increase liquidity and decrease portfolio duration. Huneke, managing $1.9 trillion in assets, said, "Market volatility is too high. We have already advised clients to be more conservative, hold more liquid assets, possibly shorten portfolio duration, but with such dramatic changes, it is difficult to make tactical moves." Huneke pointed out that despite strong profit prospects entering 2026, recent events have made the outlook uncertain. Individual Stock News Directly Targeting Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TSM.US) 'Production Capacity Reaches Its Limit'! Broadcom Inc. (AVGO.US) Warns of Chip Supply Chain Crisis, AI Arms Race Faces Major Obstacles. As the global AI arms race continues to intensify, the vulnerability of the chip supply chain is once again in focus. Chip design giant Broadcom Inc. recently warned of supply chain constraints, with its key foundry partner Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR's capacity limitations being particularly prominent, becoming a core bottleneck restricting industry development. Meanwhile, the energy and raw material supply pressures brought by the Middle East conflict also add new uncertainty to the global semiconductor industry. Natarajan Ramachandran, Director of Product Marketing for Broadcom Inc.'s Physical Layer Products Division, said on Tuesday, "We have observed that the production capacity of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR has reached its limit." Just a few years ago, he would describe Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR's capacity as "infinite." Stock Plunges by 36% Spark Japanese Interest? Rumors of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG.US) Planning to Acquire Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF.US), Pre-market Surges Over 15%. Reports indicate that Japanese Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is considering the possibility of acquiring the American investment bank Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Boosted by this news, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. surged by over 15% pre-market on Tuesday, narrowing to 7.46% by the time of writing. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group has formed a dedicated team to closely monitor Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s stock price trend to ensure swift action when the time is right. Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s stock price has fallen by over 36% since the beginning of this year. Last year, their asset management-related institutions were involved in the bankruptcy of American auto parts supplier First Brands, leading to further deep declines in their stock price. Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US) Restructures Financial Procurement Software to Begin Automation Era, Deeply Cultivating AI to Break Through the "Replacement Crisis". At the Oracle AI World Conference held in London on Tuesday, March 24th, global software giant Oracle Corporation announced plans to transform its cloud-based financial software used by large enterprises to work in conjunction with AI agents, aiming to allow people to pose business questions to the system, which AI will then use to determine how to access relevant data. This change is part of a broader trend among enterprise software providers to modify their software for use by AI agents, enabling them to perform tasks on behalf of human users. At the same time, it also marks a transition for Oracle Corporation from a traditional software service model to a new era of comprehensive adoption of AI agents. AI Chip Arms Race Escalates Again! SK Hynix Plans to Spend Nearly $8 Billion to Purchase ASML Holding NV ADR (ASML.US) EUV Lithography Machine. SK Hynix plans to spend 11.9 trillion Korean won (approximately $79 billion) to purchase advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography semiconductor manufacturing equipment from ASML Holding NV ADR (ASML.US) to deepen its layout in the next-generation memory field and meet the growing demand for artificial intelligence (AI). The order is valid until 2027 and is one of the largest orders of its kind, highlighting chip manufacturers' race to secure EUV equipment necessary for preparing the most advanced semiconductors globally. Important Economic Data and Events Forecast 20:55 Beijing time: US Redbook Business Retail Sales YoY as of March 16th for the week. 21:45 Beijing time: US March SPGI Manufacturing PMI preliminary value. 22:00 Beijing time: US March Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Next day at 04:30 Beijing time: US API Crude Oil Inventory Change as of March 20th for the week.