The final 48-hour ultimatum is approaching! European natural gas prices rebound, surging over 5% in early trading to erase the losses from the previous day.

As the confrontation between the United States and Iran escalates in the Strait of Hormuz, global energy markets are experiencing increased volatility, with European natural gas prices resuming an upward trend this Monday after a brief fluctuation. The benchmark natural gas futures contract rose by over 5% in early trading, erasing the losses from the previous trading day. The core cause of this price volatility lies in the ultimatums issued by both the US and Iran. It is understood that last Saturday, US President Trump demanded that Iran fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours and threatened that if Iran refused to comply, the US military would launch destructive strikes on Iran's core power infrastructure such as power plants. In response, the Iranian military stated that if their power facilities were attacked, they would indefinitely close the Strait of Hormuz and launch large-scale retaliation against energy and desalination infrastructure in the Middle East. Currently, this war has entered its fourth week with no signs of easing. Shipping activities in the Strait of Hormuz have nearly come to a standstill this month, leading to disruptions in nearly 20% of global liquefied natural gas transport. Meanwhile, Qatar's largest LNG plant has been shut down, with around 17% of its capacity destroyed. Qatar has stated that it may take up to five years to restore its production capacity to pre-war levels. Analysts, such as Samantha Dart from Goldman Sachs, noted in a report released last Sunday that due to the worsening negative impact on global LNG supply, gas prices in Europe and Asia may need to "further climb." "The widespread attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East last week suggest that the duration of energy supply disruptions will be longer than we previously expected," they stated, and accordingly raised their gas price predictions. Traders are also closely monitoring Europe's natural gas reserves as the region needs to import a large amount of LNG this year to rebuild its severely depleted stocks. The EU's Energy Commissioner has urged member states to start replenishing gas reserves early to avoid supply competition in the summer. Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen pointed out in a letter to the governments that they should lower the target for reserve filling to 80% and make full use of the flexibility provided by EU law. With Europe's current natural gas storage levels low, averaging only around 30%, and Germany dropping to a low of 21%, the EU is urging member states to start stocking up on gas reserves. However, as the Middle East geopolitical crisis continues to escalate, analysts widely believe that Europe may have to face a high energy price environment until 2027, posing a severe challenge to European industrial production and macroeconomic stability. At the time of writing, the European benchmark natural gas futures contract - the Dutch TTF front-month contract price soared by 4.7% in trading, reaching 62.02 per megawatt hour.