Goldman Sachs significantly raises 2026 oil price forecast: risks continue to brew in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude could reach $85.

Due to the extended interruption in transportation through the Hormuz Strait and the worsening concerns about the concentration of global supply, Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecast for 2026, bullish on the oil and energy sectors. The bank has strengthened its expectation of inflation pressure persisting longer, potentially providing support for commodity-linked currencies and intensifying worries about central bank policy direction. In its latest outlook, the bank assumes that oil shipments through this critical Middle Eastern chokepoint will only operate at 5% of normal levels for an extended period of six weeks. This represents a more severe and prolonged disruption scenario than previously expected. Goldman Sachs further predicts that restoring the transportation will require an additional month, indicating a gradual rather than immediate supply recovery. Analysts at the bank state that this revised scenario reflects a reassessment of geopolitical risks in the region, as ongoing conflicts increase the likelihood of long-term supply disruptions. The Hormuz Strait is a key artery of the global energy market, and even partial interruptions could have a significant impact on prices due to its role as a core channel for crude oil exports. In addition to short-term interruptions, Goldman Sachs also highlights longer-term structural changes in the oil market. The bank points out that the high concentration of global production and spare capacity (largely limited to a few countries) could create a more sustained risk premium in oil prices. Analysts suggest that this dynamic is expected to prompt governments and market participants to increase strategic stockpiling efforts, thereby exerting upward pressure on future oil prices. Based on these shifts, Goldman Sachs has revised its 2026 average Brent crude price forecast from $77 per barrel to $85 per barrel. The bank has also raised its WTI crude forecast from $72 per barrel to $79 per barrel. This adjustment underscores how geopolitical tensions are not only affecting short-term price fluctuations but also starting to reshape long-term expectations for supply security and pricing dynamics. Analysts point out that even if transportation eventually returns to normal, the market may maintain a higher structural risk premium given the vulnerability exposed by recent disruptions.