Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Coal prices are not light in the off-season, and multiple institutions are optimistic about the performance of the sector (with concept stocks)

This week, the coal price at ports stabilized and rebounded, ending the continuous decline since March 4th. Against the backdrop of inverted import coal prices and escalating geopolitical conflicts, the scope for a pullback in port coal prices is limited. Despite the off-peak season for thermal coal consumption and continuous accumulation of northern port stocks since March, the expected slowdown in railway maintenance in April, coupled with inverted import coal costs and resilient demand for coal in the coal chemical industry, the upward momentum in coal prices still exists. Cinda's research outlook for the future suggests that coal prices may show characteristics of not being weak during the off-season, laying the foundation for a significant rise in coal price center in 2026. Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that domestic supply continues to shrink, leading to the rapid and continuous disposal of port stocks since New Year's Day and an increase in coal prices. Overseas factors and the increase in coal chemical demand are icing on the cake and will further boost the coal price center. The bank believes that the coal industry is expected to return to a state of basic supply-demand balance in 2023-2024, with prices rebounding in the range of 800-1000 yuan/ton through seasonal fluctuations. CITIC Securities released a research report stating that the ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has lasted for more than three weeks, and the continuous rise in international oil and gas prices shows good sustainability. Currently, although thermal coal demand is facing the off-peak season in the short term, the demand for coal in the chemical industry may continue to be released, pushing coal prices to stop falling and rebound; with the improvement in short-term demand for coking coal, the outlook is stable. Coupled with overseas support, optimism is high for the rise in domestic coal prices and its sustainability, suggesting continued optimism for the sector's performance. It is recommended to focus on companies with coal chemical business and companies with relatively advantageous valuations, while also paying attention to companies with coal resource layouts overseas. Hong Kong-listed companies related to the coal industry chain: MONGOL MINING (00975), China Coal Energy (01898), YANCOAL AUS (03668), Yankuang Energy Group (01171), CHINA QINFA(00866), China Shenhua Energy (01088), etc.; Coal chemical industry: CHINA RISUN GP(01907)