Trump's "48-hour ultimatum" predicted that the market would not buy it. Polymarket shows that the probability of the Strait of Hormuz being open at the end of April is only 30%.

Despite President Trump setting a 48-hour deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz, the prediction market is skeptical about whether shipping through the strait will return to normal in the short term. On the Polymarket prediction market platform, traders believe there is about a 30% chance of shipping returning to normal by the end of April, with this likelihood decreasing significantly in the past few trading days due to escalating geopolitical risks. Contracts on Kalshi suggest that the reopening timeline will be more gradual. The market indicates that the probability of traffic returning to normal on May 15 is around 39%, on June 1 about 53%, and on July 1 about 59%, indicating that the market expects the traffic disruption to continue into the second quarter. Last Saturday, President Trump stated that Iran must "fully open" the waterway within 48 hours, otherwise its power plants would be bombed. In response, Tehran warned that if Iran's fuel and energy facilities are attacked, Iran will strike "all energy, information technology, and seawater desalination infrastructure belonging to the American and Israeli regimes in the region." Aside from information fatigue and excessive market volatility, one of the increasingly serious challenges investors face is the lack of consistent information from Trump on the Iran conflict issue. Just before he issued the two-day ultimatum, the president had indicated that he was considering "gradually reducing" US military actions against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of global oil shipments.