The confrontation between the US and Iran enters the countdown! Global market risk aversion intensifies, US stock futures fluctuate lower, and bond market selling intensifies.

In early trading on Monday, as investors faced another potentially tumultuous trading day with no signs of easing in the fourth week of the Middle East conflict, US stock index futures fluctuated between gains and losses. S&P 500 index futures remained flat after an earlier decline, while futures contracts indicated that Asian stock markets would follow the downtrend seen in US stocks on Friday. Australian 10-year government bonds continued to decline, with benchmark bond yields rising 13 basis points on Monday. The US dollar edged higher against most major currencies, with the risk-sensitive Australian dollar and Mexican peso leading the declines. Brent crude oil fell more than 1%, trading around $110 per barrel. In other commodities, gold prices rose after experiencing the largest weekly decline in over 40 years, while silver jumped more than 2% in early trading on Monday. US President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran on Saturday evening, demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to strike its power plants if not. The deadline is set to expire on Monday evening in New York time. However, Iran responded that any such attack would prompt it to indefinitely close the waterway and target US and Israeli energy infrastructure in the region, indicating the risks of both sides escalating the conflict. Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, said in an interview, "Whether to withdraw from this war is not solely Trump's decision. Uncertainty has been rising for three weeks, and now it's increasing substantially. Even if people don't sell, they won't buy either and without buyers, a vacuum will be created." Global markets were hit by the Middle East war last week, with both stock and bond markets experiencing sell-offs. Rising inflation and the dual risks of potential growth weakness caused the S&P 500 index to fall 1.5% on Friday, marking a fourth consecutive week of declines and the longest losing streak in over a year. After three consecutive weeks of declines, US Treasury yields rose to multi-month highs short-term bonds led the way, with the two-year Treasury yield rising by 18 basis points to 3.90% last week; the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield surged 13 basis points to 4.38%, the highest level since late July. European bond markets also saw sell-offs as investors bet on rising interest rates. On Friday, the US stock market sell-off intensified as traders began to anticipate new inflation shocks due to higher oil prices, which could lead the Federal Reserve to shift towards raising rates this year. The market also expects similar actions from the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, despite the war weakening global economic growth prospects. After the market closed on Friday, Trump tweeted that he was considering scaling down military actions in Iran, claiming the US was "very close" to achieving its goals and hinting at finding a way to exit the war. However, his subsequent threats to bomb power plants - and Iran's vow to retaliate - indicate little progress toward a ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz typically carries about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, and the standoff around the strait has deepened a supply crisis that has affected gasoline prices, fertilizer costs, and food production. Since the conflict began at the end of February, shipments through the strait have effectively halted. Analysts at ANZ Bank wrote in a report to clients, "The dramatic escalation in rhetoric seems to suggest a further flight to safety at the opening of markets, as the increasingly hard-to-ignore prospect of long-term disruption to global energy supplies looms."