Cui Dongshu: At the end of February 2026, there were 3.33 million cars in stock across the country, a decrease of 240,000 from the previous month.

On March 21, Cui Dongshu stated that by the end of February 2026, the national passenger vehicle industry had a inventory of 3.33 million vehicles, a decrease of 240,000 vehicles from the previous month and an increase of 250,000 vehicles compared to February 2025, forming a good trend of controlled inventory decline. The forecast team of China Passenger Car Association expected a 5% optimism in early February 2026, but by early March, the satisfaction rate for February had improved to 40%, with lower expectations but improved satisfaction. The team's optimism for the February market rose to 23%, which is still a relatively low level compared to recent market optimism judgments, and they are looking forward to further subsidies in some areas. Based on the retail forecast for the next N+3 months, we calculate the inventory support for future days, so the inventory days are not fixed for the current month and will change with forecast adjustments. Due to lower-than-expected trends in the fourth quarter of 2025, the industry's inventory days peaked at 79 days before a significant reduction in production. Therefore, based on the inventory at the end of February 2026 and the comprehensive estimate of future sales, the existing inventory is expected to support sales for the next 60 days, which is an improvement compared to 62 days in February 2023, 50 days in February 2024, and 64 days in February 2025, indicating a relative improvement in overall inventory pressure for this February. Analyzing the inventory changes of only new energy vehicle manufacturers, the industry inventory decreased to 620,000 vehicles in September 2025 following efforts to curb overstock. By February 2026, the industry inventory had increased to 680,000 vehicles, which was a decrease of 100,000 vehicles from the peak inventory in November 2025, but an increase of 20,000 vehicles from December. Recent inventories of new energy dealers face the challenge of lower-than-expected retail market performance, leading to overall pressure on industry inventory. In the past few years, the overall domestic passenger car market inventory has remained relatively stable. Since 2023, the industry's total inventory peaked at around 297 million vehicles in October 2024, then rose to 379 million vehicles in November 2025 before falling back down. In February 2026, the inventory decreased to 333 million vehicles, with manufacturer inventory accounting for 29.8%. Given the current inventory level of 3.33 million vehicles and the market growth forecast for the coming months, the industry's inventory digestion pressure remains significant. With current pricing trends showing differentiation, car companies need to closely monitor policy environment and market changes, carefully adjust production and sales pace, cautiously increase inventory based on distributor inventory structure, and promptly clear historical inventory. The United States currently has an inventory level of 40-50 days, indicating overall manageable inventory pressure and serving as a reference for the Chinese car market. As of the end of February, the inventory days for the national passenger car market have slightly decreased to 60 days, indicating continued pressure on inventory digestion. Given the expectation for market recovery as a result of central government consumption policies and the expiration of tax-free policies, the industry inventory days peaked at 79 days in the fourth quarter of 2025 but have since shown improvement. Based on the inventory at the end of February 2026 and the estimate of future sales, the current inventory is expected to support sales for the next 60 days, reflecting a relative improvement in overall inventory pressure for this February. For companies that exclusively produce new energy vehicles, the inventory analysis shows that inventory reached 200,000 vehicles in early 2023, then peaked at 880,000 vehicles in April 2025. Following efforts to curb overstock, the industry's inventory decreased to 620,000 vehicles in September 2025, but increased to 680,000 vehicles by February 2026. Recent inventories of new energy dealers face the challenge of lower-than-expected retail market performance, leading to high overall industry inventory pressure.