Adding fuel to the fire! Trump denies possibility of ceasefire, international oil prices continue to rise, Brent crude oil closing above $112.

The latest statement from President Trump of the United States further dispelled market expectations of a ceasefire in the short term, combined with escalating energy supply risks, international oil prices closed higher, and market concerns about the future trend of oil prices and inflation prospects continue to rise. President Trump made a clear statement to the media at the White House on Friday, stating that he "has no intention of reaching a ceasefire agreement with Iran" and emphasizing that current military actions will continue to progress. "We can talk, but we won't ceasefire," he said. "When you're suppressing the other side, you don't choose a ceasefire." He also claimed that Iran "no longer has effective military capabilities" and stated that the United States has "already achieved victory" militarily. This tough stance comes at a time when the conflict has been escalating for nearly three weeks, indicating that the situation is unlikely to ease in the short term. Earlier, Trump had said that the United States could "end the war immediately," but chose to continue military actions. At the same time, he criticized NATO allies for not actively participating in safeguarding the security of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and called on other countries, including Japan, to provide support. With geopolitical risks continuing to ferment, energy market volatility has intensified. International oil prices significantly rose on Friday, with Brent crude closing up 3.3% at $112.19 per barrel, marking the fifth consecutive week of gains with a weekly cumulative increase of 8.8%. The WTI crude oil April contract increased by 2.3% to $98.32 per barrel, but due to contract rollover effects, it fell slightly by 0.4% over the week. Analysts point out that Trump's recent escalation in tough rhetoric has heightened market expectations for further escalation of the conflict, including ground military actions. It is widely believed in the market that with tension in the Strait of Hormuz, the risk of energy supply disruptions is significantly increasing, becoming a core factor driving oil price increases. Institutional perspectives indicate that the market is beginning to factor in more extreme scenarios. Some analysts believe that if the conflict escalates further, Brent oil prices could reach $130, and in the most pessimistic scenario, if the United States conducts ground military operations and the conflict lasts for several months, oil prices could even rise to the range of $150 to $180. Meanwhile, attacks on energy infrastructure have also heightened supply concerns. Iran previously attacked the Khatam al-Anbiya and Ra's al-Jaffar Industrial City in Qatar, leading to a reduction in its liquefied natural gas production capacity by about 17%, with repair periods potentially lasting several years; Israel also struck the South Pars gas field in Iran, further disrupting the global energy supply landscape. Although some signs suggest there is room for a de-escalation of the conflict, such as Israel's announcement of a temporary halt to further attacks on Iran's gas fields, overall, the market is still reassessing the sustainability of energy shocks and their impact on the global economy. Institutional analysis indicates that the pricing probability of severe supply shocks in the current market has increased from 25% a week ago to about 50%. Against the backdrop of sustained high oil prices, market concerns about rising inflation and tightening monetary policies are intensifying. Analysts believe that if energy prices remain high for an extended period of time, it may compel central banks to reconsider their path of rate hikes and increase the probability of the global economy facing "tail risks".