UBS Group AG lowers Q1 delivery expectations, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) stock price may not necessarily reflect "selling car" sentiments.

UBS Group AG recently released a research report on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US), predicting that Tesla, Inc. will deliver 345,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2026, a 2% increase year-on-year, but an 18% decrease from the previous quarter. This figure is lower than the bank's initial forecast of 360,000 vehicles for the first quarter of 2026, and 7% lower than Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 371,000 vehicles (market consensus data has not been obtained yet and is expected to be released next week). However, the bank believes that this forecast is more in line with the range of 330,000-350,000 vehicles expected by buyer institutions. Actual delivery data may be slightly lower than the bank's forecast, but the possibility of a delivery surge at the end of the quarter cannot be ruled out. The bank also predicts that the energy storage deployment in the first quarter will be 15.1 gigawatt-hours, a 45% increase year-on-year and a 6% increase from the previous quarter. Tesla, Inc. is expected to announce its first quarter delivery data on April 2, 2026. Does delivery volume still affect the company's stock price? Perhaps not as much as in the past. Investor interest in Tesla, Inc.'s traditional automotive business and fundamentals has significantly decreased. In the bank's view, the company's stock price is now driven by the narrative and future potential of its autonomous taxi, Siasun Robot & Automation humanoid business, and other artificial intelligence businesses. Recently, there has been increased market attention on Tesla's factories and CECEP Solar Energy business. Therefore, the progress and latest developments of these new businesses are more crucial to the stock price. Recent investor feedback shows that the progress of the autonomous taxi and humanoid businesses is slower than expected, and the related disclosures are relatively flat. With NVIDIA Corporation's release of the Alpamayo autonomous driving platform and other companies accelerating their autonomous driving business layouts, the market increasingly believes that Tesla, Inc. may struggle to establish a sustainable competitive advantage in the field of autonomous taxi services. Although the bank believes that market sentiment will continue to be a key factor driving the company's stock price (its impact far greater than vehicle delivery volume), Tesla, Inc.'s cash flow is mainly supported by its traditional automotive business. These cash flows are the source of funding for the company's growth investments, with Tesla, Inc.'s capital expenditure reaching as high as $20 billion this year. The bank's adjustment to the first quarter delivery volume forecast for 2026 is mainly based on several factors: Weak demand in the U.S. electric vehicle market, and gradual production cuts for the Model S and Model X models (though the bank expects deliveries of these models to be maintained in the coming quarters). According to estimates from automotive data companies, Tesla, Inc. delivered 78,600 vehicles in January and February, a 6% decrease from the first quarter of 2025, and a 2% decrease from the fourth quarter of 2025 for the same period. Currently, Tesla, Inc. is offering a 72-month 0% interest loan option for the Model Y, and providing a 30-day trial service with automatic driving (supervisory mode) for all new Tesla, Inc. models. As of March 31, owners can transfer the automatic driving (supervisory mode) rights of their existing vehicles to new Tesla, Inc. vehicles. In addition, Tesla, Inc. is offering a leasing plan for the new Model 3, with a monthly lease of $399 and a down payment of $3,000. European Market: In the first two months of this quarter, deliveries in the top eight European markets decreased by about 4% year-on-year, but the bank believes that overall demand is relatively stable and the performance in other European countries may boost the market. So far this quarter, deliveries in the German market have increased by 32% year-on-year, while France has increased by 24%. However, the UK has seen a 41% drop, the Netherlands a 56% drop, Belgium an 8% drop, Spain a 73% increase, Italy a 20% increase, and Norway a 19% decrease. The bank notes that European deliveries are typically concentrated in the third month of the quarter. China Market: Due to the low base in the same period last year caused by the Spring Festival, wholesale deliveries of Tesla, Inc. increased by 36% year-on-year in the first two months of this quarter, but decreased by 14% from the previous quarter. Wholesale deliveries are a better reflection of the production situation as they include export data. So far this quarter, Tesla, Inc.'s exports have increased by 112% year-on-year, and by 45% from the previous quarter, providing a basis for the bank's delivery forecasts in other regions. Excluding exports, retail deliveries in China's domestic market decreased by 6% year-on-year and by 42% from the previous quarter in the first two months of the quarter. Tesla, Inc. has extended the deadline for its 7-year ultra-low interest rate and 5-year interest-free financing programs to March 31, 2026. The bank believes that apart from the core markets of the U.S., Europe, and China, Tesla, Inc.'s deliveries in other regions will see growth.