Key points of the Fed meeting: Five core points will determine the future direction of the market.

On Wednesday local time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged, while also updating its forecasts for the economic outlook and future monetary policy path. During the post-meeting press conference, Chairman Jerome Powell provided detailed explanations on various topics including inflation trends, dynamics of the job market, and policy adjustment space. Here are the five key points: 1. Market filled with uncertainty Although the market generally expected that the Federal Reserve would neither cut nor raise interest rates at this meeting, investors continued to search for clues about policy direction. However, whether it was the post-meeting statement, updated economic forecasts, or Powell's press conference, no clear policy signals were released - the statement only made subtle adjustments, the "dot plot" showed signs of a mild dovish shift, but the overall guidance was limited. It is worth noting that Powell used the word "uncertain" or its synonyms more than six times in his speech, further emphasizing the ambiguity of the current policy path. 2. Challenges brought by the war Powell pointed out that in the context of the US-Iran conflict, predicting future economic trends and constructing policy models was almost an impossible task. He was repeatedly asked about the impact of the oil shock, emphasizing that this shock made the situation faced by the Federal Reserve extremely complex and unpredictable. "What I really want to emphasize is that no one can predict the ultimate outcome," he said. "The economic impact may be greater, may be smaller, or there may be significant differences. We really cannot determine the specific direction." 3. Rate cuts looming, but timing highly uncertain The dot plot still suggests a rate cut will happen once this year and once next year, but the path it presents is more like a maze than a consensus, highlighting significant divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Specifically, the policy expectations for 2027 show extreme differentiation: one official believes an increase is needed, three advocate maintaining the status quo, four predict another rate cut, six forecast two rate cuts, three support three rate cuts, one predicts four rate cuts, and the last participant - speculated to be Governor Stephen Milan - gives a forecast of five rate cuts. 4. Powell leaves room for continuity At every press conference, Powell is asked whether he will continue to serve as a member after his term as chairman ends. He once again made it clear that no decision had been made, of course not ruling out the possibility of staying on. However, he emphasized that as long as investigations into him were ongoing, he would not choose to leave, and added: until someone - speculated to be former Governor Kevin Wash - is formally confirmed as his successor, he will continue to fulfill his duties as "acting chairman." 5. Powell rejects the "stagflation" label Avoid using the word "stagflation" in front of Powell. Despite weak job growth and inflation rates consistently exceeding the Fed's target for five years, the chairman explicitly denies that the American economy - with robust growth and low unemployment rates - is heading towards the stagflation crisis of the 1970s. He stressed: "The current situation is indeed challenging, but it is fundamentally different from the stagflation situation faced in the 1970s. I will reserve the 'stagflation' label for that specific scenario. Perhaps this is just my personal opinion, but this distinction is crucial." Various viewpoints "The Fed took no action today - but also did not need to. This is a central bank that tends to wait, observe, and maintain flexibility. The expectation of only one rate cut is enough to illustrate the point: the Fed is not eager to act, and investors should not be overly impatient." - Gina Boling, President of Boling Wealth Management Group "Although this move aligns with the market's general expectations, it highlights the difficult situation the Federal Reserve faces in the future. As a central bank with a dual mandate - maintaining full employment and controlling inflation - it is even more challenging, as its decisions are often based on weeks or even months-old data that may not fully reflect the extent of rapid economic changes, increasing the risk of decision lag or reliance on outdated assumptions." - Felix Adara, Indeed economist "Given the current turbulent situation, it is expected that the committee will try to minimize action to avoid market turmoil before the new Federal Reserve chairman takes office." - Stephen Coltman, Head of Macro Research at 21shares