Global bonds have had their longest continuous rise since the outbreak of war, oil prices have stabilized, easing concerns about inflation.
With the easing of oil price fluctuations, global bond markets continued to rebound this week, recapturing significant lost ground since the US airstrikes on Iran.
The stabilization of oil prices boosted global bond markets this week, reclaiming significant losses since the US airstrikes on Iran. In the European and American markets, sovereign bond prices are expected to rise for the third consecutive trading day, marking the longest uptrend since last year. In Asian markets, Japanese government bonds rose sharply on Wednesday, while Australian government bonds saw their first consecutive two-day increase since the outbreak of war last month.
Previously, soaring oil prices sparked inflation concerns, leading to a selloff in the bond market. However, this week, Brent crude oil futures prices have stabilized, trading within a narrow range around $102 per barrel. This has allowed traders to take advantage of attractive bond yields while reducing concerns about rapid market reversals.
"There are indeed more signs of stability in the market," said Steve Reid, senior portfolio manager at Aviva Investors. "From a valuation perspective, current levels are undoubtedly attractive."
The correlation between bond yields and oil price volatility is increasing, with crude oil prices becoming a key driver of market sentiment. So far this Wednesday, Brent crude futures have traded in the narrowest range since the outbreak of the war.
Reid noted that while short-term bonds are currently priced for a "quite dire scenario" and the market has experienced a "significant adjustment," inflation hedging remains a necessary measure to counter further energy shocks. At the same time, with the risk that rising oil prices could start to drag on economic growth, long-term bonds in some markets are becoming attractive.
"We believe that this is the first opportunity for long-duration bonds to finally be rewarded since before the conflict erupted," he added.
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