The Hormuz Strait is now under "selective blockade"! Iranian oil exports are not significantly hindered, while the shipping volume of other oil-producing countries is nearly stagnant.

Iran has been transporting its own crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly the same scale as before the war, taking full advantage of its control over this key waterway while other oil-exporting countries in the region struggle. According to data from the intelligence company Kpler, of the 27.2 million barrels of crude oil leaving the Persian Gulf since March 1, Iran's oil exports through the waterway accounted for nearly three-quarters. For Iran, this is equivalent to about 1.2 million barrels per day, compared to a pre-war level of 1.5 million barrels per day. In contrast, three weeks after the outbreak of war, the combined daily shipping volume of other countries in the region was only 400,000 barrels per day, compared to an average of 14 million barrels per day before the war. The assessment of closing the Strait of Hormuz before the war - almost unprecedented - often tended to believe that Iran would avoid taking extreme measures, mainly because it would jeopardize its own crude oil exports. However, the asymmetric cargo flow in the past few weeks indicates that Iran, while restricting shipments of other export countries, is able to protect its own goods - this "stranglehold" control behavior is pushing up energy prices and forcing the United States to consider increasingly harsh options to reopen the waterway. As part of a series of actions, the U.S. Department of Defense has begun striking missile sites near the Strait of Hormuz in Iran. U.S. President Trump has called on allies to assist in ensuring the security of the region, although responders are few. Muyu Xu, Senior Crude Analyst at Kpler, stated: "This embargo has become the most serious disruption to oil flows in history. Real oil supplies are disappearing from the global market, which could cause demand destruction in the coming weeks." According to Kpler's ship tracking data, in the first week of the war, Iranian-related transport ships accounted for 35% of the 20 oil tankers carrying crude oil outward. A week later, this proportion rose to 5 out of the 8 ships leaving the region being related to Iran, indicating Iran's further strengthening of control over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the U.S. strikes on Iran's Kharg Island, the oil loading at this export hub appears to be unaffected. Satellite images from Sentinel Hub show that three ships docked at the island on Tuesday, compared to two on March 7. As no new images were released during this period, it is currently unclear whether Iran continued loading during this time. Goldman Sachs analysts stated in a report on Tuesday that the flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz is currently stable at a fraction of the pre-war level, averaging about 500,000 barrels per day according to a four-day average calculation. However, compared to the pre-war average level, this means a decrease of 98%, or a reduction of about 1.95 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, other oil-producing countries in the Persian Gulf are eager to find alternative routes to avoid costly stoppages. After initially closing some of its oil production at the beginning of the war, Iraq has reached an agreement with the Kurdish regional authorities to restore exports through Turkey. Saudi Arabia is transporting some of its crude oil to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea, and the UAE is using the Fujairah port on the Gulf of Oman for exports. Goldman Sachs stated that these alternative plans have helped reduce the region's oil losses from a daily average of 17 million barrels earlier this week to 14.9 million barrels on Tuesday.