Trump called on allies to escort the Strait of Hormuz but did not receive a response. International oil prices hit their highest closing level in three and a half years.

Due to the ongoing escalation of the Middle East conflict and uncertainty surrounding the shipping prospects in the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices surged on Tuesday and reached the highest closing level in three and a half years. Meanwhile, President Trump's call for allies to assist in ensuring the safety of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz did not receive widespread response, further exacerbating concerns about global energy supply. Market data shows that global benchmark Brent crude oil futures rose 3.2% on Tuesday, settling at $103.42 per barrel, the highest level since August 2022. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures rose 2.9%, closing at $96.21 per barrel. Despite a temporary dip in oil prices on Monday, crude prices quickly rebounded as geopolitical risks continued to escalate. Data shows that Brent crude has seen a nearly 43% increase in price this month. Market participants are currently evaluating oil price trends in a highly uncertain environment. Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, pointed out that the current oil market is pricing through a "foggy window," with factors such as some oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, incomplete data, and changing political situations all influencing market judgments simultaneously. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most critical energy transport routes globally, carrying not only a large amount of crude oil but also trade in essential commodities such as fertilizer. President Trump urged allies on Monday to send warships to help ensure the safe passage of oil tankers through the waterway, but this call did not receive widespread response. Some analysts have noted that the U.S. request has "basically gone unanswered." On Tuesday, Trump, during a meeting with Irish Prime Minister Michel Martin at the White House, stated that some Middle Eastern countries, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Israel, have assisted in U.S. actions. However, he criticized NATO allies for not participating in the conflict with Iran or ensuring the safety of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, expressing dissatisfaction. He also claimed on social media earlier that the U.S. has "decimated" the Iranian military, indicating that the U.S. does not need assistance from NATO countries. Meanwhile, the region remains tense. Israel continues to launch airstrikes against Iran, with Israeli security officials stating that Iran's security chief, Ali Larinjani, was killed in Monday evening's attack. Iraq has condemned attacks on key energy facilities and diplomatic institutions, including the Majnoon oil field and the U.S. embassy in Baghdad. Maritime security risks continue to impact the energy market. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operation Center reported that a tanker was attacked with unidentified projectiles while anchored near the Fujairah port in the UAE, sustaining minor damage to the hull. Due to security risks, some berth operations at the Fujairah tanker terminal have been temporarily suspended. However, the latest signs indicate that the Strait of Hormuz has not been completely blocked. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Monday that the strait remains open, meaning that Iran may allow some tankers to pass through but impose restrictions on others. Innes noted that this situation is more like "selective disruption" than a complete blockade. Data shows that 15 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past three days, including five oil tankers, indicating limited recovery in shipping. Additionally, Saudi Arabia can transport more crude oil to the Red Sea for export through its east-west pipeline. Analysts believe that the previously feared "disastrous blockade" is evolving into a "restricted detour," rather than completely cutting off this global energy artery. Aaron Hill, chief market analyst at FP Markets, pointed out that news of some ships resuming passage drove oil prices lower on Monday. However, he also emphasized that current shipping activities remain very limited, far from returning to normal. In the longer term, some countries' reluctance to join the U.S.-led strait escort operation may reflect complex changes in geopolitical relationships. Analysts suggest that recent sanctions and trade friction have weakened support for U.S. policies in some countries, possibly indicating a more fragmented global political landscape in the future. In the short term, markets will continue to focus on a core question: whether crude oil can continue to flow out of the Middle East. If supply can partially be maintained, oil price fluctuations may remain high; however, if transportation is disrupted again, international oil prices may rise further, putting new pressure on global inflation and economic growth.