E-COMMODITIES (01733) issues profit warning, expecting a year-on-year decrease in net profit to HK$310 million to HK$330 million in 2025.

E-COMMODITIES (01733) announces that the Group expects its revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025 to decrease to around HK$24.5 billion to HK$26 billion compared to the full year of 2024. The Group also expects its attributable net profit to shareholders for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025 to decrease to between HK$310 million and HK$330 million compared to the full year of 2024, showing a decrease for the full year but a stable increase in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half. The performance changes are mainly due to the significant volatility in the coking coal market throughout the year, with a large downward shift in prices, restructuring of the industry chain profits, resulting in pressure on both the middle trading and logistics segments, leading to a decrease in revenue and gross profit. Key operating environment analysis is as follows: Supply chain trade sector: In 2025, the global economy is under pressure, geopolitical and trade frictions intensify, leading to significant adjustments in the steel and coking coal industries. The domestic steel market shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with both crude steel production and consumption declining, and the demand structure gradually shifting from the construction industry to manufacturing; although steel exports have increased in volume, export prices have decreased, showing a pattern of "increased volume, decreased price". As for imported coking coal, after three consecutive years of growth in domestic import volume, it decreased by about 3% in 2025 compared to the previous year. Due to the impact of price inversions at home and abroad, except for Mongolia, the volume of sea-freight coking coal imports decreased by about 10% year-on-year. The coking coal market experienced sharp price fluctuations, showing a trend of initial decline, then rise and fall back, with a significant downward shift in prices. The average price of prime coking coal in 2025 was $183 per ton, a decrease of about 27% from the same period, with the main coking coal futures contract falling by about 39%, hitting a new low since 2017. The significant price fluctuations highlight market uncertainty, with downstream steel mills having pricing power, upstream profits narrowing, and trading segments facing thin profit margins due to pressure from both ends. Downstream customers maintain low inventories, fast turnover, low purchasing enthusiasm, increased risks and pressures in the trading segment, demanding higher requirements for enterprise risk control, operations, and fund security. In 2025, the Group actively adopted a cautious procurement strategy, strictly controlled risks, closely followed market changes, and selected optimal sales strategies in the challenging market environment. However, due to the impact of unit prices and trade volumes, revenue in this sector decreased by about 38% year-on-year. The Group implemented a dual-driven approach to face market price fluctuations, actively optimized product structures, enhanced coal blending technology research and development, improved high-quality coal delivery service capabilities, and built differentiation advantages; domestically and internationally, the synchronized market expansion enhanced overseas layout. At the same time, more emphasis was placed on strengthening risk control, actively and flexibly using futures tools to hedge price fluctuation risks, assisting partners in precise matching of spot and futures, avoiding business risks. Integrated supply chain services sector: In 2025, the competitive landscape at the China-Mongolia border undergoes profound changes. With the continuous improvement of customs clearance capabilities at the Ganqimaodu port, infrastructure at ports such as Ceke and Mandula continuously improving, the industry's overall transport capacity significantly increased, market competition becoming increasingly fierce, leading to a downward trend in service fees in various cross-border transportation segments, putting pressure on the Group's revenue and profitability. At the same time, with weakening coal market prices, the average yearly price of Mongolian 5# raw coal at the Ganqimaodu port in 2025 was 909 yuan per ton, a decrease of about 29% year-on-year, affecting customers' purchasing willingness and freight demand, thereby influencing the level of related service fees. The average short-haul freight at the Ganqimaodu port in 2025 was 67 yuan per ton, a decrease of about 26% year-on-year. However, amid the overall contraction of industry profits and intensifying competition, the Company's business volume remained relatively stable, fully demonstrating the cyclical resistance and operational resilience of the integrated closed-loop service model of the supply chain built over the years. Revenue in this sector of the Group decreased by about 14% compared to the same period last year due to the downward market prices. In the future, the company will continue to explore how to better adapt to the new competitive landscape of the border ports. Accordingly, the company may consider adopting a strategy of "optimized layout, multi-point support," including seeking to consolidate the basic market of Ganqimaodu port and maintain existing service advantages; evaluating opportunities to increase the market share of Ceke, Mandula, and other ports to form incremental support; and exploring the construction of a balanced cross-border supply chain system to reduce dependence on a single port and enhance overall risk resistance and long-term profit stability.