Guolian Minsheng Securities: International oil prices continue to fluctuate at high levels. It is recommended to pay attention to the phase investment opportunities in the oil market.

Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that executives in the oil industry are concerned that the energy crisis triggered by the situation in Iran is likely to worsen. The interruption of energy transportation in the important waterway of the Strait of Hormuz will continue to bring severe volatility to the energy market, and there may also be a shortage of refined oil supply in the market. The price of US crude oil rose from $87 per barrel to $99 per barrel from Wednesday to the weekend of the week beginning on March 13. Iran's attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the surrounding waters have affected the normal passage of oil tankers in the area, resulting in a significant reduction in the volume of crude oil transportation in the strait, and international oil prices continue to fluctuate at high levels. The securities firm suggests paying attention to geopolitical factors as they bring phase-specific investment opportunities to the oil market. Major points of Guolian Minsheng Securities: Review of oil price trends On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a military operation against Iran. Iran's Supreme Leader, Khamenei, was killed in the US and Israeli attacks on Iran. In the first trading day after the weekend of the military operation, the opening price of international oil prices increased by nearly $10 per barrel, with WTI and Brent futures opening at $75.0 per barrel and $81.6 per barrel respectively. International oil prices experienced the largest weekly increase since the beginning of the year on the week of March 2, with WTI and Brent oil prices reaching a daily high of nearly $120 per barrel on March 9. Oil prices then fell from the high, with international oil prices reaching around $100 per barrel on March 13. Iran's oil production situation Iran's crude oil production declined due to sanctions in 2012 and 2020. After 2020, Iran's crude oil production was not constrained by OPEC production cuts, gradually recovering to 300-350 million barrels per day. Despite US sanctions, Iran transported crude oil at sea through a "shadow fleet," with exports recovering to nearly 1.69 million barrels per day in 2025. According to Kpler's tanker tracking data, Iran's crude oil exports were close to 1.1-1.5 million barrels per day from February 28 to March 11, 2026. Oil prices during the Russia-Ukraine conflict On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a military operation against Ukraine, and WTI and Brent oil prices rose by over $10 per barrel in just one week. On March 7, 2022, WTI and Brent reached historical phase highs of nearly $130 per barrel and $140 per barrel respectively. After falling from the highs, oil prices experienced a rise of about two months and then a fall of about three months. From April 12 to June 13, 2022, WTI and Brent reached daily highs of nearly $120 per barrel from around $100 per barrel. From June 14 to September 26, 2022, WTI and Brent fell from around $120 per barrel to around $80 per barrel. Risk warnings: Risk of turbulent Middle East geopolitical situation; Risk of global economic downturn; Risk of fluctuations in oil and natural gas prices.