ZhaoYin International: High power heavy-duty vehicles and low hydrogen prices drive "self-sufficiency", benefiting from both industry cost technology and upstream layout.

CMB International released a research report stating that on March 16th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "Notice on Carrying out Pilot Projects for Comprehensive Application of Hydrogen Energy", marking the formal introduction of a new round of stimulus policies for the hydrogen energy industry. This round of policies is more focused on fuel cell heavy trucks/system applications with more market-oriented characteristics such as long endurance and high power, promoting a significant decrease in hydrogen production costs and weakening local protectionism. It is of great significance to help the hydrogen energy industry gradually achieve "self-sufficiency". The new round of policy benefits participants with competitive advantages in cost technology and comprehensive layout in the upstream and downstream of the industry, suggesting attention to REFIRE (02570). CMB International's main points are as follows: Single vehicle maximum reward exceeds expectations, long endurance high power as development direction In this round, incentives for fuel cell vehicles are still reflected in the form of points, and continue the rule of annual tapering, but the maximum subsidy power for fuel cell systems has been increased from 110kW in the previous round to 280kW, exceeding expectations, reflecting the policy's positive guidance towards market-oriented development directions such as long endurance and high power. According to a central government incentive of 80,000 yuan per point, the highest reward a fuel cell heavy truck can receive from a vehicle perspective is 352,000 yuan, slightly lower than the highest single vehicle subsidy of 378,000 yuan in 2025. Considering the continuous decline in costs and possible local government subsidies, the subsidy intensity for hydrogen heavy trucks in this round significantly exceeds expectations (30,000 yuan per vehicle in 2027, an average of 20,000 yuan per vehicle during the subsidy period). This round of incentives maintains restraint in total amount, aiming to eliminate local protectionism This round of subsidies continues the declaration quota of the previous five city demonstration clusters, which is less than previous expectations (8-10), but the number and scope of cities covered may have increased compared to the previous round. The maximum reward limit for a single city cluster has been reduced from 1.7 billion in the previous round to 1.6 billion, with a total upper limit of 8 billion yuan, which is lower than previous expectations (16-20 billion yuan). This means that the policy is no longer pursuing blind expansion of scale, but focusing on high-quality, self-sufficient demonstration applications. At the same time, this round of policy sets a points limit for a single company in a single city cluster, which helps to eliminate local protectionism, giving top companies the opportunity to enter more city demonstration clusters, accelerating industry consolidation. Hydrogen price target validates "subsidy cost" as the core of profit and loss balance The policy clearly states that by 2030, the terminal hydrogen price will drop to 25 yuan per kilogram (15 yuan per kilogram in advantaged areas), which accurately confirms our core judgment: the key to the short-term competitiveness of fuel cell vehicles' total lifecycle cost (TCO) lies not in vehicle price, but in hydrogen price. The current cost of over 35 yuan per kilogram for hydrogen production is the biggest bottleneck hindering commercialization. The policy uses "rewards to replace subsidies" to encourage cost reduction on the hydrogen production side and efficiency improvement on the operational side, which is more conducive to the healthy development of the industry than solely subsidizing end vehicle prices. CMB International previously estimated that once the hydrogen price drops to 28 yuan per kilogram in 2027, even under lower subsidy assumptions, the TCO of a 49-ton hydrogen heavy truck will be lower than that of a diesel vehicle. At that time, the industry will transition from "policy blood transfusions" to "market self-sufficiency". REFIRE moat deepens, benefiting from cost technology and upstream layout CMB International believes that REFIRE has established significant barriers in cost control and technological leadership in high-power systems, perfectly aligning with this round's subsidy orientation of "high power, long endurance". Secondly, its advanced layout in hydrogen production endow it with a unique "vehicle-hydrogen linkage" advantage, enabling it to more effectively meet policy requirements for a reduction in hydrogen price, providing integrated solutions and accelerating business expansion. In the context of limited total subsidies, market share is expected to accelerate towards such leading companies with the ability to integrate the entire industry chain.