Hong Kong stock concept tracking | Apple lowers China App Store commission rate, benefiting domestic game industry chain (with concept stocks)

Starting from March 15, 2026, the commission rate for iOS and iPadOS on the Mainland China App Store will be adjusted, with the standard commission rate for purchasing and paying for apps changing from the current 30% to 25%. For the App Store Small Business Program and Mini Apps Partner Program, the commission rate for in-app purchases of qualifying Apple apps, as well as the commission rate for automatic renewals after the first year, will be reduced from the current 15% to 12%. Jefferies issued a research report stating that Apple is reducing the commission rate for the China App Store, including lowering the commission rate for in-app purchases and paid app transactions from 30% to 25%. The bank believes that these measures are a positive factor for the overall entertainment sector and expects the impact on major companies' profits this year to be in the low single digits. For example, market expectations for Tencent's smartphone game revenue this year are expected to grow by 11.7% year-on-year to 256 billion yuan, accounting for 31% of total revenue. The bank estimates that seventy percent comes from the domestic market, involving about 180 billion yuan. Assuming thirty percent of revenue comes from iOS, with the commission rate dropping from 30% to 25%, the expected positive impact on profits in 2026 would be in the low single digits. As for NetEase, the market expects game revenue to grow by about 8.5% to 97 billion yuan this year, accounting for 80% of total revenue. The bank estimates that ninety percent comes from the domestic market, with forty percent of game revenue coming from iOS; considering that the new measures come into effect in mid-March, the expected impact of the commission rate reduction on profits this year is less than 3%. For Kuaishou, market expectations for live streaming revenue this year are expected to remain flat at 39.4 billion yuan, accounting for 25% of total revenue. Assuming that twenty-five percent comes from iOS, the positive impact of the commission rate reduction on profits this year is less than 2%. As for online music platforms, the bank projects that the adjustments will have a positive impact of approximately 1% and 2% on the profits of Tencent Music and NetEase Music, respectively. Northeast released a report stating that Apple will reduce the commission rate for the China App Store, lowering the commission rate for small developers and mini program partners from 15% to 12%. The reduction in platform fees will directly benefit the profitability of overseas mobile games, especially those heavily reliant on in-app purchase (IAP) revenue. The bank believes that the fundamentals of the gaming industry are strong, with stable high levels of supply-side approvals for new games and multiple companies with rich pipelines for new games. It sees long-term value recovery for leading game companies embracing AI transformation. Hong Kong stocks related to the online gaming industry include Kuaishou-W (01024), FRIENDTIMES (06820), XD INC (02400), NetEase-W (09999), Tencent (00700), BILIBILI-W (09626), QINGCI GAMES (06633), TANWAN (09890), CHINA RUYI (00136), etc. Hong Kong stocks related to online entertainment include TME-SW (01698) and NETEASE MUSIC (09899).