Guosheng: Rising oil prices accelerating transmission to PET, pay attention to bottle price increases and new blueprint for rPET.

Guosheng released a research report stating that the increase in oil prices is accelerating the transmission to PET, significantly improving the profit space for bottle chips. With the rise in the center of oil prices and the escalation of supply crises in the Middle East, the market is gradually transitioning from the first stage of trading high Middle East production capacity to the second stage of trading Asia refinery operating rates. The oil transportation volume through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly 15 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 34% of global crude oil trade. The aromatic hydrocarbon chain, with its low substitution route for oil, has strong potential for price increases, and currently prices are accelerating along the chain of naphtha-PX-PTA-PET. Profits for polyester bottle chips are showing a trend of marginal improvement, and the company recommends focusing on Wankai New Materials (301216.SZ). Guosheng's main points are as follows: Raw materials: 1) PX-PTA: Reliant on a single oil-based route, prices have risen significantly According to Baichuan Yingfu, the average price in East China for PTA this week (3.6-3.12) is 6303 yuan/ton, up 17% from the previous week, but the upstream PX has increased significantly more than PTA; the operating rate for PTA this week (3.6-3.12) is about 77%, and the market supply is basically stable. PTA relies on a single oil-based route, so if the operating rate of PTA declines, attention should be paid to the risk of "supply disruption" for raw materials. 2) MEG: Oil-based costs are rising, while coal-based and natural gas-based are expected to benefit. Ethylene glycol has a global oil-based share of up to 67%, making it a typical oil-priced product. The average price for ethylene glycol in East China this week (3.6-3.12) is 4519 yuan/ton, up 15% compared to the previous week, with an operating rate of about 62%, and some ethylene glycol produced from ethylene is reducing production. Non-oil routes are expected to benefit. PET bottle chips: Cost increases are accelerating the transmission to PET, and profits for bottle chips are on the rise The ongoing escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is leading to an increase in oil prices that is accelerating the transmission to PET through PX-PTA. According to Baichuan Yingfu, the average price for polyester bottle chips this week (3.6-3.12) is 7990 yuan/ton, a 23% increase; the profit margin for bottle chips is increasing, with a profit of about 316 yuan/ton for the week, up 362 yuan/ton from the previous week. Large factories reducing contract volumes have caused tight delivery conditions in the market, combined with the demand peak season in March and April for PET, as well as industry cooperation to control production and prevent internal competition, the profit for bottle chips is showing a trend of marginal improvement. rPET opens up a new growth blueprint, and the potential for bio-enzyme recycling is huge Overseas environmental policies and corporate green goals are driving demand for rPET. In the context of the circular economy, countries overseas are setting environmental policy targets, and global brand giants are actively responding, collectively driving market growth for rPET. Europe is an important market for rPET, with regulations stipulating that by 2025, rPET content should account for no less than 25%, and by 2030, no less than 30%, with an estimated demand for rPET in the European market of approximately 4 million tons by 2025. Bio-enzyme technology is a new engine for rPET recycling rPET production methods include physical, chemical, and bio-enzyme methods. Traditional physical methods involve downgrading recycling, and can only handle waste PET bottles with low product quality; bio-enzyme methods can truly achieve "monomer-monomer" recycling, processing 100% of PET waste, including waste plastic bottles, polyester fibers, etc., producing products with quality comparable to virgin PET, enabling high-value applications. In addition, compared to chemical methods, bio-enzyme methods have mild reaction conditions and higher purity. According to Carbios financial reports, the global high-end rPET market is expected to have a compound annual growth rate of approximately 17% from 2025 to 2050. Bio-enzyme rPET products are of high quality and have enormous development potential. Recommendation to focus on Wankai New Materials The company has a production capacity of 600,000 tons of ethylene glycol from natural gas, with significant cost advantages in the production process route; in cooperation with France's Carbios, the company plans to build a production capacity of 50,000 tons of rPET, gradually expanding to 300,000 tons, 500,000 tons, with a long-term plan for production capacity of one million tons, opening up growth opportunities. Risk warning: lower-than-expected downstream demand, significant fluctuations in raw material prices, supply disruptions in raw materials, etc.