Guosheng: Green energy becomes the key to breaking the high energy consumption of data centers. Focus on the three main lines of investment in electric and calculation synergy.

Guosheng released a research report stating that green energy has become the key to solving the high energy consumption problem of data centers, and at the same time, the electricity demand of data centers also challenges the upgrade of the power system. Since 2025, various regions have frequently implemented policies related to electricity and computing synergy, emphasizing the formulation of long-term measures for electricity and computing synergy; promoting the construction of "source-grid-load-storage" and "virtual power plants," and accelerating the actual implementation of electricity and computing synergy. Electricity and computing synergy is clearly defined as a new infrastructure category, with the elasticity of "exchange rate/quantity for price" and "exchange rate/quantity for green" highlighting, and the demand from the power generation side driving the upgrade and transformation, suggesting focusing on targets related to electricity and computing synergy. In addition, electricity and computing synergy is expected to open up new growth space for green energy companies, with optimism for high-quality wind and solar assets. Guosheng's main viewpoints are as follows: National policies strictly limit the proportion of green electricity in computing power parks, and the construction strategy has upgraded from "East Data West Computing" to "Electricity and Computing Synergy" Since the launch of the "East Data West Computing" project in 2022, the policy side has been continuously guiding data centers to transform towards green and low-carbon, clearly requiring that by the end of 2025, the proportion of green electricity in new national hub nodes should exceed 80%. Green energy has become the key to solving the high energy consumption problem of data centers, while the electricity demand of data centers also poses challenges to the upgrade of the power system. Recently, various computing power hub regions have successively issued policies related to the development of computing power, accelerating the actual implementation of electricity and computing synergy The "East Data West Computing" project includes eight national hub nodes, such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao, Chengdu-Chongqing, as well as Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Ningxia, corresponding to clusters such as Zhangjiakou, the Yangtze River Delta Eco-friendly Integrated Demonstration Zone with Wuhu, Shaoguan, Tianfu and Chongqing, Gui'an, Helinger, Qingyang, and Zhongwei. Since last year, various regions have frequently implemented policies related to electricity and computing synergy, with Guizhou Province issuing a notice in March on the formulation of long-term measures for electricity and computing synergy; promoting the construction of "source-grid-load-storage" and "virtual power plants"; and accelerating the construction of projects such as the 500 kV Machang substation transformation project and the Linka-Qingyan 220 kV transmission line project, etc. Mainline one: Electricity and Computing Integrated Operators Under the upgrade of the business model, this type of company has the highest revaluation elasticity. These companies have both power sources and transaction capabilities such as electricity sales/distribution/virtual power plants, and are beginning to enter the field of computing power leasing and data center services. Their revenue model has gradually expanded from the traditional "electricity generation electricity price" to "green electricity supply + energy services + computing services + environmental rights," so the potential for profit leap may be the largest. Mainline two: Corresponding regional green electricity operators for computing power hubs "Computing follows electricity" is currently the most mature and visible main path for the industry. As national and regional policies require an increase in the proportion of clean energy for data centers, the logic of site selection for data centers has shifted from the traditional "close to customers, close to networks" to "priority to be close to low-cost, sustainable, and tradable clean energy supplies." Directly connecting to green electricity can directly lower the cost of electricity and lock in long-term energy prices. The profitability analysis of data center projects can no longer be based on traditional frameworks, but must include the power supply structure, transaction capabilities, the proportion of green electricity, and peak shaving capabilities. Directly connecting to green electricity is the most direct and has the biggest impact on project returns, especially suitable for western regions like Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Qinghai, where there is an abundance of wind and solar resources and lower land and electricity costs. Mainline three: Power grid upgrades and intelligent dispatch Data centers have higher demands on the cross-regional power grid, dispatching capabilities, and level of intelligence. Data centers have high loads and strong continuity, requiring higher stability of power supply, dispatch efficiency, and energy quality, and there is also a mismatch between the location distribution of data centers and energy resources. The cross-regional capacity, dispatch capabilities, and level of intelligence of the power grid need to be improved urgently, and the demand for system upgrades such as main and auxiliary microgrids, energy storage, virtual power plants, and intelligent grid dispatch is expected to significantly increase. Some computing power hubs may face power shortages, and the existing transmission and distribution capacity of the power grid may be difficult to match the rapid growth in the electricity demand from computing power. According to the comparison of electricity consumption and generation in each computing power hub location by 2025, regions such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area all face power supply shortages, with local green electricity supply being insufficient to meet the needs of computing facilities. Among them, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong have the largest power shortages, reaching 245.8, 234.9, and 249.5 billion kilowatt-hours respectively. Investment recommendations Electricity and computing synergy is clearly defined as a new infrastructure category, with the elasticity of "exchange rate/quantity for price" and "exchange rate/quantity for green" highlighting, and the demand from the power grid side driving the upgrade and transformation. It is recommended to focus on targets related to electricity and computing synergy, and to consider investing in Chongqing Fuling Electric Power Industrial (600452.SH). It is also recommended to pay attention to NYOCOR (600821.SH), Gepic Energy Development (000791.SZ), as well as power companies that highlight value adjustment and dividend transformation: Huaneng Power International, Inc. (600011.SH, 00902), Huadian Power International Corporation (600027.SH, 01071), GD Power Development (600795.SH), DATANG POWER (601991.SH), Inner Mongolia Huadian (600863.SH), Shaanxi Energy Investment (001286.SZ); and leading companies in the flexible transformation of thermal power: Qingdao Daneng Environmental Protection Equipment (688501.SH), Wuxi Huaguang Environment & Energy Group (600475.SH). Electricity and computing synergy is expected to open up new growth space for green energy companies, with optimism for high-quality wind and solar assets: CHINA SUNTIEN (600956.SH), China Longyuan Power Group Corporation (001289.SZ), Zhongmin Energy (600163.SH), etc. Grasp the defense of water-nuclear integration, hydropower electricity prices have market advantages, and nuclear power capacity electricity prices need to be supplemented. It is recommended to pay attention to China Yangtze Power (600900.SH), Sichuan Chuantou Energy (600674.SH), China National Nuclear Power (601985.SH), and CGN Power Co., Ltd. (003816.SZ). In the gas sector, it is recommended to focus on high-quality leading companies in profit recovery and stable dividends in city gas: ENN ENERGY (02688), KUNLUN ENERGY (00135), CHINA RES GAS (01193). Risk warning Unexpected rise in raw material prices; project construction progress below expectations; electricity auxiliary service market, green certificate trading, and other policies falling short of expectations.