Soaring oil prices suppress expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, causing gold to fall below the $5000 mark.

The price of gold once fell below the key level of $5000 per ounce, as the Middle East war entered its third week - following the attack on critical energy infrastructure over the weekend, international oil prices soared, forming a significant bearish trend. Gold prices fell by 1% in early trading, continuing the previous two weeks of decline. Rising energy prices and inflationary pressures caused by conflicts have significantly weakened market expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks. Specifically, after the United States carried out military strikes on Iran's major oil export hubs, Tehran quickly launched retaliatory attacks on energy infrastructure in several Arab countries, directly pushing oil prices sharply higher. The uncertainty of the duration of the war has made it extremely difficult to assess its impact on the market and the overall economy. According to senior aides of U.S. President Trump, the conflict, which has entered its third week, is expected to last four to six more weeks. However, there are fundamental contradictions between the U.S. and Iran - Trump said that Iran "wants to reach an agreement but the U.S. demands better conditions," while Tehran has made it clear that it "is not seeking negotiations or a ceasefire," intensifying the market's difficulty in judging the direction of the conflict. As the war continues to drag on, the prospect of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is becoming increasingly uncertain. The latest U.S. consumer spending data released last Friday further confirmed the weak economic trend: although the data was collected in January before the outbreak of the war, spending in that month saw almost no growth due to the impact of weaker-than-expected economic growth. At the same time, concerns about the conflict pushing up gasoline prices in recent weeks have continued to rise, causing the U.S. consumer confidence index to drop to its lowest point in three months. Market traders generally expect that the probability of a rate cut at this week's Federal Reserve meeting is close to zero. Rising borrowing costs typically exert downward pressure on interest-free assets such as gold, but the market volatility triggered by current geopolitical conflicts is reshaping this logic - while the increase in oil prices may temporarily suppress gold, concerns about "stagflation risk" (i.e. economic growth slowing down while high inflation persists) are prompting investors to see gold as a more attractive long-term store of value. In terms of specific price trends, spot gold prices fell by 0.7% to $4986.34 per ounce in early trading, but rebounded by 0.17% to $5027.89 per ounce at the time of writing; silver futures also showed similar fluctuations, falling by 0.7% before rising by 0.99% to $81.37.