Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures rise together, January PCE data will be released tonight.

1. On March 13 (Friday) before the U.S. stock market opened, the futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes all rose. As of the time of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose by 0.36%, the S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.36%, and the Nasdaq futures rose by 0.36%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index rose by 0.05%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.14%, the French CAC40 index rose by 0.02%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose by 0.13%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell by 2.27%, trading at $93.56 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 1.42%, trading at $99.03 per barrel. Market News Tonight's PCE may show signs not seen in a decade! Will the Fed's rate cut road face obstacles again? At 8:30 pm Beijing time on Friday night, the U.S. will release the PCE price index for January. The market expects the PCE data to rise by 2.9% year-on-year, consistent with the previous value, and rise by 0.3% month-on-month, slowing down from the previous month's 0.4%. Regarding the core aspect, the market expects the core PCE price index growth rate to slightly accelerate to 3.1% year-on-year, marking the largest increase since April 2024, with a month-on-month increase staying unchanged at 0.4%. Trump says he will escort the Strait of Hormuz if necessary, threatening to strike Iran. U.S. President Trump stated that if necessary, the U.S. will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, but he also expressed hope that U.S.-led war efforts will proceed smoothly, vowing to carry out "very strong strikes" against Iran in the near future. Fed rate cut expectations fall short: June becomes a new "watershed," and Powell's "era of accommodation" may not arrive as scheduled. Surveys show that economists have postponed their expectations for the next Fed rate cut from March to June, but still expect two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of the year. The interviewed 46 economists predict a faster rate of rate cuts than the pricing in the futures market. According to their median forecast, this also adds one more rate cut compared to the number of rate cuts predicted by Fed officials in December 2026. Among the economists surveyed, nearly a third have doubts about the core figure chosen by President Trump to succeed Powell as Fed chairformer Fed governor Kevin Warsh. When asked if they believe Warsh will be committed to achieving the Fed's 2% inflation target, 13% said they were uncertain, and 18% answered "no". Surging oil prices see supply easing! Under the "stranglehold" of the Strait of Hormuz, Russian oil comes to the rescue. After the U.S. granted a temporary exemption and allowed other countries to purchase Russian energy goods that were already loaded while at sea, over 30 oil tankers in Asian waters now have Russian crude oil and a wider range of fuels available for actively purchasing by international buyers interested in Russian oil. Analysts state that the significant escalation of political conflict in the Middle East GEO Group Inc has markedly increased Russia's pricing power and financial returns potential from oil, with the Russian government expected to earn tens of billions of additional dollars in fiscal revenue this month. However, the exempted supply of Russian oil is insufficient to truly push current international oil prices towards a sustained downward trajectory. U.S., Japan, and Europe plan to advance a critical mineral trade agreement, potentially establishing a price baseline mechanism. According to sources, the U.S., Japan, and the EU plan to announce a related framework in the coming weeks to lay the groundwork for a critical mineral trade agreement. Sources indicate that the U.S. Trade Representative's Office (USTR) has led negotiations with the EU and Japan on the framework and will continue to lead negotiations on the trade agreement. The agreement aims to set price baselines and tariffs for critical materials to counter any market behavior from China. According to a report in February, the U.S. has developed a price baseline mechanism for critical minerals and is promoting it to allies. Currently, the Trump administration and over 50 countries are seeking to reduce dependence on the supply of these resources from Asia, as they are considered crucial for national security. Outperforming 97% of peers, top funds bullish on Chinese tech stocks: Increase holdings in Alibaba and Tencent, betting on China's AI application dividend. An outstanding emerging market fund is increasing its investment in large Chinese AI companies, betting that these companies are more valuable than the U.S. tech giants investing heavily in expansion. Caroline Cai, CEO of Pzena Investment Management, disclosed that their $3.9 billion fund has been increasing holdings in Tencent (00700) and Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR (BABA.US) among other digital platform companies. She believes that these companies are undervalued, and considering their potential to transform daily life, they have more room for future growth. Cai stated in an interview in New York, "You don't need to pay a high price for the productivity gains that artificial intelligence may bring." Individual Stock News Q1 performance exceeds expectations amidst AI anxiety: Adobe (ADBE.US) CEO resigns after 18 years at the helm. Facing deep-seated doubts in the market about whether it can continue to lead in the era of artificial intelligence, Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen will step down from his leadership position at this creative software giant. On the same day, the company released its first-quarter report, with revenue and performance exceeding market expectations. Adobe expects revenue for the quarter ending in May to range between $6.43 billion and $6.48 billion, with analyst average estimates of $6.43 billion; adjusted earnings per share are expected to be between $5.80 and $5.85, with an average estimate of $5.70. In the first quarter ending February 27, sales increased by 12% to $6.4 billion, higher than the analyst average estimate of $6.28 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $6.06, compared to an average estimate of $5.88. Middle East conflict spreads to beauty retail: Inflation concerns may squeeze consumer budgets, Ulta Beauty (ULTA.US) performance guidance for this year falls short. In the fourth quarter, thanks to the success of its Beauty Unleashed strategy, growth in comparable store sales, and the acquisition of Space NK, revenue performance continued to be strong, with net sales in the fourth quarter increasing by 11.8%, reaching a higher-than-expected $3.9 billion, while comparable store sales increased by 5.8%, higher than 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and higher than the expected 4.25% growth. However, earnings per share were $8.01, lower than $8.46 in the same period last year, and 2 cents below Wall Street's expectations. The company's annual performance guidance disclosed is below Wall Street expectations. According to the company's statement, comparable store sales (measuring revenue from online and physical stores open at least a year) is expected to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% this year, with the midpoint below the analyst average expectation of 3.5%. Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) announces a reduction in the commission rate for the App Store in China. Following discussions with Chinese regulators, Apple Inc. will lower the commission rate for mobile and tablet operating systems within the App Store in China. The standard commission rate for in-app purchases and paid apps within the Apple Inc. App Store will change from the current 30% to 25%. The commission rate for small developers under the small developer program and partners of mini programs eligible for in-app purchases within the Apple Inc. App Store and for automatic subscription renewals after the first year will change from the current 15% to 12%. The commission rate adjustment will take effect on March 15, 2026, without the need for developers to sign new terms. Apple Inc. stated that it is committed to maintaining fair and transparent terms for all developers and always providing competitive App Store rates that do not exceed the overall rate levels in other markets for developers distributing apps in China. From major strikes to corporate governance red lights, Starbucks Corporation (SBUX.US) labor risks may jeopardize shareholder value. Two influential U.S. shareholder advisory firms are warning shareholders that global coffee giant Starbucks Corporation may be disregarding the financial fundamentals and reputational risks posed by labor disputes, which could affect long-term growth in overall shareholder value. This warning comes as more than a year has passed since the company's contract negotiations with its U.S. labor union broke down, following the formation of a union by baristas at its coffee shops. "Controversies surrounding labor disputes continue and it is currently unclear whether the board has provided sufficient oversight to the company management in handling labor relations," analysts from ISS, the world's largest shareholder advisory firm, wrote earlier this month. The annual shareholder meeting for Starbucks Corporation is scheduled for March 25. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US) increases investments in AI healthcare race: Launches Copilot Health, targeting "medical superintelligence." Microsoft Corporation is expanding its consumer health product line driven by artificial intelligence, launching Copilot Health. This service gathers data from various sources including wearable devices, health records, and lab test results to provide what is referred to as "medical intelligence." Microsoft Corporation believes this new feature will pave the way for "medical superintelligence," described as a health artificial intelligence that combines the broad knowledge of a general practitioner with the deep specialized knowledge of a specialist. Copilot Health will be rolled out in phases, initially targeting users aged 18 and above in the U.S. and providing an English version. Copilot Health can collect data from over 50 wearable devices such as Fitbit, Oura, and Apple Health. Facing competition and cost pressures, STMicroelectronics NV ADR RegS (STM.US) plans to introduce humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation to advance factory smartification. The European chip giant STMicroelectronics NV ADR RegS (STM.US) announced a transformation plan on Thursday to provide retraining for old employees and introduce Siasun Robot&Automation into old chip manufacturing plants to address industry challenges and avoid factory closures. At a semiconductor conference organized by SEMI in Sopot, Poland, STMicroelectronics NV ADR RegS Manufacturing Director Thomas Morganstern showcased a video of Siasun Robot&Automation delivering silicon wafer carriers to equipment. "This is the first Siasun Robot&Automation we have put into operation," Morganstern said. "Over the next few years, we will deploy over a hundred humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation in the factory to perform various tasks." Important Economic Data and Events Preview 8:30 pm Beijing time: U.S. January personal spending month-over-month, U.S. January PCE price index year-over-year, U.S. Q4 revised annualized GDP rate, U.S. January durable goods orders preliminary. 10:00 pm Beijing time: U.S. March University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary, U.S. January JOLTs job vacancies. 1:00 am the next day Beijing time: U.S. total rig count for the week ending March 13. 3:30 am the next day Beijing time: CFTC weekly commitment of traders report.