Zhongjin: In February, both the volume and price of second-hand houses remain stable, and housing prices in Beijing and Shanghai continue to stabilize.

Zhongjin released a research report, stating that due to the Spring Festival trading suspension, the transaction volume index of second-hand residential properties in 80 medium-sized cities in February decreased by 34% month-on-month, with a slight increase of 4% compared to the same period last year; in terms of transaction price, the homogeneity index of second-hand residential properties in February decreased by -0.3% month-on-month; regarding the listing price, Beijing and Shanghai saw a slight increase of 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. With active changes on the supply side and marginal efforts on the policy side, the turning point of property prices in Beijing and Shanghai is gradually approaching. If the trading volume and supply continue to perform positively in the early spring, it will further enhance the certainty of local property prices stabilizing, and the real estate stocks will gradually enter a beta phase. Main viewpoints of Zhongjin are as follows: - In February, the transaction volume of second-hand houses increased slightly year-on-year, while the transaction price of second-hand houses continued to decrease month-on-month. In terms of transaction volume, due to the Spring Festival trading suspension, the transaction volume index of second-hand residential properties in 80 medium-sized cities in February decreased by 34% month-on-month, with a slight increase of 4% year-on-year (5% in January); in February, the transaction area of second-hand houses in 15 cities recorded a month-on-month decrease of 46%, with a year-on-year decrease of 11% (23% in January). In terms of transaction price, the homogeneity index of second-hand residential properties in February decreased by -0.3% month-on-month (-0.6% in January). - In February, the listing quantity of second-hand houses in 130 cities remained stable month-on-month, while the listing quantity in Beijing and Shanghai continued to decrease month-on-month. In terms of listing quantity, in February, the number of second-hand residential units listed in 130 cities monitored by Zhongjin remained stable month-on-month (0.2% decrease in January), with decreases of 2.9%, 0.9%, 0.9%, and 0.7% in ultra-high, high, medium, and low-tier cities, respectively. In Beijing and Shanghai, the listing quantity of second-hand houses in February decreased by 2.5% and 4.2% month-on-month, respectively, with cumulative decreases of 16% and 27% from the peak in August last year. Currently, the listing turnover period of second-hand houses in both cities has decreased to the range where historical housing prices are stable, and the certainty of property prices stabilizing continues to increase, mainly driven by supply rather than demand. - In February, residential rents increased month-on-month. In February, the homogeneity index of listed rental prices in Zhongjin increased by 0.7% month-on-month (stable in January), and the average waiting period for rental increased to 3.14 months (2.69 months in January); the rental-to-sale ratio in February increased slightly to 2.39%, with a weaker increase in the rental-to-sale ratio against the background of declining listed prices, possibly due to regional differences in price trends. Targets: Currently, mainstream targets have a certain price-performance ratio, including A shares such as Xiamen C&D Inc. (600153.SH), Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group (002244.SZ), Seazen Holdings (601155.SH), Hong Kong stocks such as CHINA RES LAND (01109), CHINA OVERSEAS (00688), China Overseas International (01908), CHINA JINMAO (00817), GREENTOWN CHINA (03900), YUEXIU PROPERTY (00123), China Overseas Hongyang (00081), Poly Property (00119), etc. Diverse sectors are recommended such as SWIRE PROPERTIES (01972), HANG LUNG PPT (00101), CHINA RES MIXC (01209). Risk factors: Worsening of supply and demand structure beyond expectations; policies not implemented as expected.