HK Stock Market Move | Coal stocks are gently rising, short-term coal substitution effects may support demand, and the market supply and demand may enter a phase of temporary tension.

Coal stocks are moderately rising. As of press time, KINETIC DEV (01277) rose 6.72% to 2.68 Hong Kong dollars; YANCOAL AUS (03668) rose 3.99% to 45.88 Hong Kong dollars; Yankuang Energy Group (01171) rose 2.22% to 17.02 Hong Kong dollars; SHOUGANG RES (00639) rose 1.52% to 3.55 Hong Kong dollars. UBS released a research report stating that since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, European natural gas prices have risen by about 50%, Brent crude oil prices have risen by about 30%, and Newcastle coal prices have risen by about 15%. The high prices of natural gas support coal prices, and the bank has raised its forecast for 2026 Newcastle coal prices by 10%, from $115 per ton to $126. Although large-scale coal-to-gas conversion is not expected in the short term, if energy prices remain high, coal demand may increase. Calculations by Changjiang show that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long period, global coal demand for power generation could increase by an annualized 84.86 million tons; if coal chemical plants in China operate at full capacity, this alone could drive domestic coal consumption by nearly 50 million tons. On the supply and demand side, Shanxi points out that the outlook for Indonesian supply remains uncertain, coupled with ongoing tensions between the US and Iran, the global coal supply and demand may enter a phase of temporary tension, further strengthening price support.