Hong Kong stocks track the concept | Iran conflict blocks the throat of fertilizers U.S. fertilizer company stocks soar (with concept stocks)

The surge in fertilizer prices caused by the Middle East war is spreading from Wall Street to the heartland of America, driving up the stock prices of fertilizer producers significantly while forcing farmers to make difficult decisions as the spring planting season approaches. A recent report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development pointed out that shipping costs, bunker fuel prices, and insurance costs, among others, are also increasing, leading to higher transportation costs throughout the fertilizer supply chain. CF Industries (CF.US), listed in the U.S., consumes a large amount of natural gas to produce nitrogen fertilizer. In trading on Thursday, its stock price surged more than 12%, reaching a historic high. The company's stock price has risen by over 75% so far this year, becoming one of the hottest stocks of the year. The stock prices of two other major fertilizer suppliers in North America, Mosaic and Nutrien, have also risen by over 30% this year. On March 12th, SINOFERT Limited, the main distributor of potash fertilizer in China, issued a notice stating that the current period is a critical time for spring planting fertilizer distribution. In order to further implement the spirit of ensuring stable fertilizer supply and prices in China, customers are required not to engage in speculation or hoarding, and to actively maintain market order stability. Staff at SINOFERT said that the purpose of this notice is to appeal to the market to expedite the pickup of goods to the end users and regulate market order. Prior to this, several potash fertilizer companies had announced that prices and sales volumes were subject to social supervision. A research report released by Founder stated that the Middle East is an important supplier of urea internationally. Iran and Qatar together affect global urea trade by 9-10 million tons, accounting for nearly 20% of the total global trade volume, therefore, the Middle East plays a crucial role in international urea supply. The escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran will inevitably lead to a reduction in the supply of this part of the production capacity, thereby pushing up international urea prices. In addition, the surge in natural gas prices will further increase the production costs of urea in the Middle East, thereby affecting international urea prices. The halt in navigation in the Strait of Hormuz leading to an increase in international shipping costs will also push up international potassium fertilizer prices. Related Hong Kong stocks in the fertilizer industry chain: CHINA BLUECHEM(03983): The company is a fertilizer and chemical materials company controlled by CNOOC, with a natural gas cost advantage to support stable profits from urea/methanol business. In terms of incremental growth, the company's construction of a 1.6 million ton phosphate mine is expected to increase its self-sufficiency in phosphate fertilizer raw materials, and with the widening urea/phosphate price differential between international and domestic markets since 2015, the company's urea/phosphate exports are also expected to bring incremental profits. SINOFERT(00297): The company is a leading enterprise in the Chinese fertilizer industry, with excellent asset quality, strong profitability, strong cash flow, and a high dividend payout ratio. In the future, the company's stable position as the main channel for potassium fertilizer imports and stable profitability in its core business; the company's "Biological +" strategy is expected to continue to drive performance improvement. According to a previous report from Shanxi, SINOFERT has abundant phosphate mineral reserves, with expectations for incremental growth. Its wholly-owned subsidiary, China Yunlong, has phosphate mineral resources of nearly 200 million tons within the scope of "mining rights + exploration rights". CHINA XLX FERT(01866): Heart-to-Heart Fertilizer is the leading urea enterprise in China in terms of single-scale and per unit product profitability, and a leader in the domestic nitrogen fertilizer industry, with the largest urea production capacity in the country and the largest compound fertilizer production and sales volume. By 2024, the company's urea production capacity will reach 3.9 million tons, while the sales volume of compound fertilizers will be around 2.3 million tons. In the first three quarters of 2025, the revenue contributions of these two major products were 25.3% and 58%, respectively, totaling over 50%.