Multiple oil tankers in the Persian Gulf have been attacked, escalating the crisis in Middle Eastern shipping.
Iran launched a new round of attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf, temporarily pushing oil prices back above $100 per barrel and exacerbating the largest oil market turmoil in history.
Notice that Iran has launched a new round of attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf, causing crude oil prices to briefly return to above $100 per barrel and exacerbating what the world energy regulation body calls the "largest oil market disruption in history."
The attacks on two ships off the coast of Iraq have led to the suspension of operations at the country's oil terminal, escalating tensions that may make global shippers more reluctant to consider crossing through the vital Strait of Hormuz.
The longer the conflict continues, the greater the impact on energy markets. Fuel prices have already skyrocketed in some parts of the world, with shortages even occurring.
Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern producers have been forced to cut oil production in recent days, and are now scrambling to implement alternative plans to export crude oil through routes outside the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of the global oil flow and has been effectively closed since the outbreak of war, cutting off the supply of commodities to other regions of the world.
As refineries in the region reduce production or shut down altogether, and fuel manufacturers in other regions retreat due to high crude oil prices, the prices of fuels such as diesel and jet fuel are soaring.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned on Thursday that the conflict will result in a daily reduction of 8 million barrels of global oil supply this month the largest disruption in production ever recorded.
Attacks on ships have intensified in recent days. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said on Thursday that a ship was hit by an unidentified flying object in waters north of Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates, with three attacks occurring on Wednesday.
As the crisis deepens, the global benchmark Brent crude oil price surged up to 10% on Thursday. Even though the IEA coordinated the release of a record 400 million barrels of reserves, this news failed to calm the rise. Traders are still awaiting details on how quickly these reserve oils can be released into the market.
The Iraq State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) said the tankers attacked in its territorial waters were the Marshall Islands-flagged "Safesea Vishnu" and the Maltese-flagged "Zefyros." According to Iraq's state news agency citing comments from the director of the Iraq Ports Authority, the country has halted operations at its oil terminal.
SOMO said in a statement, "This event has negative impacts on Iraq's security and economy, and poses a threat to the safety of maritime navigation and oil activities in Iraq's territorial waters."
As a precautionary measure, ships were also ordered to leave Oman's Mina Al Fahal oil terminal. The port reopened several hours later, with operations and loading now back to normal. Nevertheless, the evacuation of the Mina Al Fahal port outside the Strait of Hormuz indicates that the conflict is widening, threatening the few remaining ports in the Middle East that can still transport oil.
Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Group, said the supply disruption in Oman has raised concerns about "wider regional supply." He noted, "Markets will have to start worrying about where the oil flows beyond the Strait of Hormuz."
Evacuation of Oman ships raises concerns about disruptions in a wider supply chain
The evacuation order for Mina Al Fahal was issued following drone attacks at other Omani ports on Wednesday.
Drones also attacked a fuel depot at the country's Salalah Port, with some drones being intercepted. According to reports from Inchcape Shipping Services, Salalah Port subsequently halted operations at its container and general cargo terminals, while operations at other Omani ports like Duqm continued as normal.
As the crisis in the Middle East worsens, Oman's crude oil futures prices have surged
Xu Muyu, senior crude oil analyst at data intelligence company Kpler, said, "We thought the worst had already happened, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had effectively lasted for almost two weeks." However, she pointed out that Oman's naval evacuation operations "indicate the situation could deteriorate further."
According to Kpler's data, about 1 million barrels of Omani crude oil are exported from Mina Al Fahal every day. On Thursday, the price of this grade of oil was around $135 per barrel, significantly higher than the global benchmark Brent crude, which is currently around $97 per barrel.
The interruption of exports at Oman's oil terminal is significant, as this grade of oil is one of two grades that determine the Dubai price benchmark in the Middle East, which in turn determines the prices of most of the region's supplies. Last week, S&P Global Platts excluded varieties loaded from the Persian Gulf from its pricing mechanism.
Hormuz port is still almost closed
The actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to reduced production in Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Fujeirah (the UAE's main export terminal located outside the strait) is still loading, but some shippers are avoiding the port due to the risk of attacks. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is transporting oil to its Red Sea coast in Yanbu via pipelines.
However, the transport capacity of these alternative plans is far from the daily level of about 20 million barrels that usually pass through the strait. The impact of the emergency release of reserves by the International Energy Agency will also be limited.
Patterson from ING said, "While we will see record coordinated release of emergency reserves, the speed at which these supplies enter the market can only cover a small portion of the supply losses we are seeing."
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