Hong Kong stock concept tracking | Zimbabwe tightens export of lithium concentrate, global lithium market enters third supercycle (with concept stocks)

Recently, lithium carbonate futures have fluctuated sharply, rising by 33.5% since the beginning of the year. According to a survey by Mysteel, Zimbabwe's ban on the export of unprocessed lithium minerals has substantially impacted shipments. Pre-ban shipments of sea-freight cargoes (approximately 25,000 tons of lithium concentrate) can still arrive normally, but all subsequent shipments of unprocessed minerals (including lithium carbonate, lithium concentrate) have been suspended, with no specific date for resumption, constraining mid-term raw material supply. Mysteel predicts that lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate within the range of 130,000 to 170,000 yuan/ton in the short term. On February 25th, the Zimbabwe Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all exports of raw ore and lithium concentrate (including goods in transit). This export suspension includes all minerals currently in transport with no clear timeline for resumption. This measure aims to strengthen mineral regulation and accountability within the framework of national interests. Under the new regulations, only mining companies with valid mining rights and approved ore processing plants will have export qualifications, with agents and third-party traders clearly excluded from the export entities. According to official data, Zimbabwe has one of the largest lithium reserves in Africa and is one of the world's major producers, with estimated resources of 126 million tons. In recent years, the country has been tightening its mineral export policies, imposing taxes on lithium concentrates exported from 2026 onwards. Previously, the Zimbabwe Minister of Mines publicly stated in 2025 that the government plans to ban concentrate exports from 2027 onwards to promote the development of local mineral processing capabilities and retain the value of mineral resources. This comprehensive export suspension is seen as a further implementation of this policy path. It is reported that several A-share listed companies, such as Chengxin Lithium Group, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, Sinomine Resource Group, Canmax Technologies, and Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group, have layouts including lithium mines in Zimbabwe. Regarding the suspension of lithium concentrate exports in Zimbabwe, Sinomine Resource Group confirmed that all Chinese exports of lithium concentrate in Zimbabwe have been stopped, awaiting further policy details. Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt stated that the company's mining license is issued by the local Ministry of Mines, and it is not yet certain how much of an impact it will have. Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group stated that the company has already shipped all the lithium concentrate produced in Zimbabwe, and the company can continue to apply for exportation, needing to supplement relevant information in the export license process, and has already started to move forward. UBS stated that the low lithium prices from 2024 to 2025 have led to the clearance of global high-cost production capacity by more than 30%. Many lithium mine expansion projects have been delayed. The global lithium market has entered its third supercycle in prices. The forecasted lithium spodumene price for 2026 has been significantly raised by 74% to $3,131 per ton, and lithium carbonate has been adjusted to $26,000 per ton. The core force driving this round of the cycle is no longer just electric vehicles but the global explosion of energy storage demand. Global demand is expected to double to 3.4 million tons by 2030; by 2035, energy storage applications will account for 42% of global lithium total demand. China Great Wall's research report states that the lithium carbonate market is expected to see a situation of dual growth in supply and demand in March. On the supply side, most lithium salt plants have resumed production, and domestic supply is stable overall. On the demand side, energy storage expectations still have support, with downstream purchasing intentions increasing after price corrections. Industry total inventory remains at a low level, and this week continues de-stocking, providing some support for prices. Related concept stocks: Ganfeng Lithium Group (01772): The company has the Goulamina lithium spodumene project in Zimbabwe (controlling 50%), which is of a huge scale and has an ore dressing plant. As a global leader in the lithium industry, Ganfeng has strong control over upstream resources. If its Zimbabwe project already has processing capabilities that comply with the new regulations (or can adjust quickly), it will directly benefit from the supply contraction-driven lithium price rebound. In addition, its large inventory and diversified sources (Australia, Argentina, etc.) can hedge against risks in a single region. Tianqi Lithium Corporation (09696): Tianqi's core assets are in Australia (Greenbushes) and Chile (SQM), but its global supply chain management capabilities are very strong. Tianqi itself has a small direct exposure in Zimbabwe, mainly being driven by the macroeconomic benefits of rising lithium prices. The embargo in Zimbabwe will reduce global marginal supply, supporting lithium carbonate/lithium hydroxide prices, thus improving Tianqi's profit expectations. Zijin Mining Group (02899): As of 2025, Zijin Mining Group's lithium carbonate reserves amount to 18.7 million tons, ranking tenth globally in lithium carbonate production. The latest plan shows that Zijin Mining Group's target for equivalent lithium carbonate production in 2026 is 120,000 tons; by 2028, this number will rise to 270,000 to 320,000 tons.