Is the doubling of gas prices just the beginning? Morgan Stanley warns: if Qatar's production stoppage lasts more than one month, the LNG market will quickly face a shortage.

Morgan Stanley stated that the production halt in Qatar, the main exporter of liquefied natural gas, could potentially eliminate most of this year's expected supply surplus. Analysts including Devin McDermott noted in a report on March 8th that if the Qatar LNG supply disruption lasts for more than a month, it "will quickly create a supply deficit." After the unprecedented shutdown of the world's largest Qatar Ras Laffan LNG plant last week, the facility itself seems to be intact, but the interruption has led to a doubling of natural gas prices. The country's energy minister stated that restarting and resuming deliveries could take several weeks or even months. Before the outbreak of the Iran-Israel conflict, Morgan Stanley predicted that the global LNG market, with an annual production of about 420 million tons and facing a potential surplus of up to 6 million tons by 2026 due to new projects in the US and other regions, could see a rapid rise in gas prices to $30 per million British thermal units or higher if Qatar's production path remains uncertain for the next week or so. Morgan Stanley also delayed its forecast for the initial deliveries of the expansion project for Qatar's North Field to the first quarter of 2027, removing about 1 million tons from its supply forecast for this year.