JP Morgan: Middle East oil production cuts to expand, expected to surpass 4 million barrels per day next week.

Under the flames of the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz continues to remain almost completely closed, more major oil-producing countries in the Middle East are experiencing production limitations, and oil prices have surged above $100. JP Morgan has released a research report stating that with oil storage tanks gradually filling up and transportation bottlenecks persisting, it is expected that crude oil production cuts in the Middle East region will increase to over 4 million barrels per day by the end of next weekend. JP Morgan's head of commodity strategy, Natasha Kaneva, and other analysts stated that if there is an interruption in Kharg Island, responsible for handling about 90% of Iran's crude oil exports, production cuts would increase by an additional 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day, resulting in a loss of at least 5 million barrels per day in crude oil supply in the region; including refined oil, the production cuts could exceed 8 million barrels per day. Natasha Kaneva also pointed out that before confidence is restored, the oil market faces a significant price asymmetry: oil prices could drop by $10 due to calming headlines, but once production cuts in the Gulf region are implemented and have a ripple effect in the market, oil prices could significantly rise by $30. JP Morgan indicated that Iran, originally expected to delay production cuts, may take action earlier than Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. As the goods shipped before the conflict are gradually consumed and new shipments are obstructed, the consumer market may start to experience significant supply shortages within a week.