Cui Dongshu: The "certainty" required by users of new energy vehicles is becoming a key aspect of high-end configurations.

On March 7th, Cui Dongshu, the secretary-general of the China Passenger Car Association, wrote that the 2026 Chinese automotive market is showing distinct characteristics of "stock game" as the year begins. Chinese automotive consumption has officially entered a high-end cycle, where the market is becoming desensitized to simple price reductions but increasingly sensitive to value. Currently, over thirty percent of consumers are setting their budget for their next vehicle at over 300,000 yuan, serving as a tangible confirmation of this trend. Cui Dongshu predicts that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the market will surpass 50% in 2026, becoming the dominant force in the market for the first time. With price wars being regulated by policies, industry competition is shifting from price competition to value competition. On the policy front, subsidies for new energy vehicles will now be calculated as a percentage of the vehicle price, requiring consumers to purchase models around 200,000 yuan to receive full subsidies, directly leading the market towards the mid to high-end market. In 2026, the Chinese automotive market is showing distinct characteristics of a "stock game" as the year begins. In February 2026, we predicted that passenger car manufacturers will sell 29.64 million units in 2026, staying relatively stable compared to 2025, while the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to grow by 10%, reaching 16.83 million units. This means that over 50% of the new cars sold in 2026 are expected to be new energy vehicles, making them the dominant force in the market. However, high penetration combined with low growth rates indicates that the incremental growth of new energy vehicles mainly comes from replacing fuel vehicles rather than expanding the overall market. Policies such as the "Automotive Industry Price Behavior Compliance Guidelines" clearly prohibit car manufacturers from selling below cost. As the market enters a phase of slight growth and price wars are capped by policies, the underlying logic of industry competition has shifted from "price competition" to "value competition." Observing the new car configurations released in the first week of March, it is evident that high-end configurations have gradually entered the mainstream range of around 200,000 yuan, such as the GAC Toyota Borui 7, offering a suspension version priced at 179,800 yuan, while the version equipped with Hongmeng cabin, suspension, laser radar driving assistance, and a range of 700 kilometers, is priced at only 194,800 yuan after subsidies. Configurations that were previously only found in luxury cars such as Porsche and Mercedes-Benz S-Class are now available for under 200,000 yuan. This directly validates my earlier judgment that Chinese automotive consumption has entered a high-end cycle, where the core feature of this cycle is not the raising of price ceilings, but the reshaping of high-value standards, which is currently the main theme of value competition in the car market. I. Dual drivers of policy and market: The underlying logic of the high-end cycle The adjustment of the new energy vehicle purchase tax preferential policy in 2026 has officially been implemented, becoming a key driver of industry transition. Scrap and replacement subsidies have changed from fixed amounts to percentages of the vehicle price. For example, in the case of replacement subsidies, the subsidy for new energy vehicles is 5% of the vehicle price (with a maximum of 15,000 yuan), and the full subsidy threshold needs to exceed 187,500 yuan. This means that consumers need to purchase models around 200,000 yuan to receive full subsidies. The policy direction has shifted from "universal subsidies" to "encouraging technological upgrades and quality consumption," directly leading the market towards the mid to high-end market. Consumer data also reinforces this trend. The average retail price of passenger cars in China has steadily increased from 151,000 yuan in 2019 to 184,000 yuan in 2024, with the average monthly price in January 2026 increasing to 186,000 yuan. The price distribution in January 2026 shows that the market share of models priced in the 200,000 to 300,000 yuan range has increased from 18% in 2024 to 19%. Of greater significance is that over thirty percent of consumers are setting their budget for their next vehicle above 300,000 yuan. These numbers collectively point to one conclusion: the market is becoming desensitized to simple price reductions but increasingly sensitive to value. At the same time, there were only 177 price-reduced models in the industry throughout 2025, 42 fewer than in 2024, and this number is expected to further decrease in 2026, indicating that market strategies relying solely on price reductions are becoming ineffective. As I have said before, consumers are no longer blindly pursuing brands or technological novelty, but are focusing more on "real luxury," such as seat comfort, practicality of intelligent driving, and after-sales service. II. Collective downward shift of high-end configurations: Not only "worthy," but also "reliable" A collective downward shift of high-end configurations is taking place across various technological avenues. For example, rear-wheel steering technology was once an exclusive feature of luxury cars such as Porsche and Audi A8, but it has now begun to be popularized in the 200,000 to 300,000 yuan market. The downward shift of battery technology is even more significant, with BYD Company Limited's second-generation blade battery being introduced to mainstream models, indicating that thousand-kilometer range and ultra-fast charging capabilities are no longer exclusive to flagship models but are now available in the mass market. Even traditional luxury brands like BBA are changing their approach - with the Audi A3 entering the 100,000 yuan range, Mercedes-Benz collaborating with Momenta to quickly bolster intelligent driving, and BMW teaming up with Contemporary Amperex Technology to control battery costs. Among this wave of downward configuration shifts, the most emblematic one is the dual-chamber air suspension. The GAC Toyota Borui 7 brings this chassis configuration, previously only found in traditional fuel luxury cars, into the mainstream sedan market for under 200,000 yuan. Behind the downward shift of configurations lies a fundamental transition in the dimensions of industry competition. The key point of competition for car companies has shifted from "having or not having" to "reliability." The Borui 7 air suspension exceeds industry standards by 2 times, has a warranty of up to 10 years or 300,000 kilometers, and provides comprehensive protection for core risks, reflecting a trend: after the initial stage of popularizing high-end configurations, consumers now demand a level of "certainty" - they not only want configurations that match their expectations but also ones that are dependable. This need for certainty from new energy users is key to the downward shift of high-end configurations in 2026. III. Pursuit of "certainty" in the era of stock competition: Opening up new battlegrounds in 2026 Taking a deeper look, the market environment in 2026 provides fertile ground for the downward shift of high-end configurations. Facing a zero-growth era in 2026 and a combination of policy measures banning price wars, there is a shift from industry self-regulation to long-term supervision. When prices return to value, and when information is no longer obscured, consumers can truly gain certainty, and companies can return to a positive competitive track. The introduction of the dual-chamber air suspension by the GAC Toyota Borui 7 for under 180,000 yuan is just the beginning. In 2026, as the supply chain matures, technologies such as laser radar, rear-wheel steering, and 800V high-voltage platforms that were once considered high-end configurations will accelerate their penetration into mainstream price ranges. For the industry, this means that the dimension of competition is undergoing a fundamental shift - from "competing on configurations" to "competing on combinations," from "competing on leading technology" to "competing on reliability," from "competing on price" to "competing on full-cycle service." The key to competition in the automotive industry has shifted from "who is cheaper" to "who can provide more solid technology, superior configurations, and sustained reliability in the mainstream price range." This is also the substantial dividend for consumers as new energy vehicles become the dominant force in the market.