"Safe-haven properties questioned! Bitcoin's correlation with US stocks reaches highest level of the year."
As the situation in the Middle East escalates and causes global market volatility, the trends of Bitcoin and the US stock market are highly synchronized once again.
With the escalation of the situation in the Middle East causing global market fluctuations, the trends of Bitcoin and the US stock market are once again highly synchronized, a phenomenon that has caused concern among many cryptocurrency investors. The latest data shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has risen to the highest level this year, indicating that this digital asset is more like a risk asset in the current environment rather than a safe haven tool.
The 30-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has risen to 0.74, the highest level this year. With the increasing geopolitical uncertainty brought by the US-Iran conflict, the US stock market has been under pressure recently, and digital assets have also fallen in sync. On Friday, the S&P 500 index fell by over 1.3% and recorded its worst weekly performance since November last year, while Bitcoin fell by around 5% at one point during the trading day.
Currently, Bitcoin is still in a continuous downturn that has lasted for several months. The cryptocurrency has previously experienced a significant drop from its high point, with the current price around $68,000, about half of its previous peak. Meanwhile, market trading signals indicate a lack of buying interest, further exacerbating concerns about its short-term trend.
Analyst Athanasios Psarofagis stated that the increasing correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market contrasts sharply with its original positioning. "In times of increased market volatility, Bitcoin should exhibit lower correlation, not higher," he pointed out. Historically, Bitcoin has occasionally risen during turbulent market periods, so the current trend has taken some investors by surprise.
Bitcoin was initially promoted as a decentralized financial asset, aimed at providing investors with an independent store of value outside the traditional financial system. However, in recent years, as institutional funds have entered and the connection between the cryptocurrency market and the traditional financial system has grown stronger, Bitcoin's price trends have become more easily influenced by macro risk sentiment.
The recent market volatility is mainly due to a combination of factors, including weak US employment data, escalation of the Middle East conflict, and inflation concerns stemming from rising oil prices. In addition, the uncertainty surrounding US cryptocurrency regulatory policies has added extra pressure to the market.
Despite this, some cryptocurrency investors remain cautiously optimistic about the future. Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, stated that the correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market may change again in the future. If the US stock market continues to experience a significant drop, Bitcoin may continue to be affected by the selling of risk assets, but it could also show some relative strength after the structural selling pressure weakens.
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